Ukraine War Day #46: The Face Of The New Russian Spring

Dear Readers:

For my post today I have two important topics, so let us get to it.

Tochka-Who?

In case anybody still believing any B.S. that comes from the Ukrainian government, Russia has the receipts showing that the rocket launched from a mobile Tochka-U complex last week, which killed and wounded so many civilians at the Kramatorsk railroad station, was launched by a unit of the Ukrainian army. Recall that the entire purpose of a Tochka-U rocket is to be an anti-personnel device. It is not meant to, and not capable of, damaging heavy equipment, like railroads. The pellets in the cluster bombs are intended to kill and injure people. Such as soldiers. Or civilians, as in this case.

You can see part of the words “За детей” scrawled in white paint on the side of the rocket tail.

The reporter is Vera Basilaya: The Tochka-U is of the type cluster munitions. When the rocket blows up and releases its shrapnel, the tail usually remains. This is why people were able to read the message which somebody had scrawled on the tail: “За детей” (in Russian). This is translated (correctly) as “For the children”, but the actual semantics allow for some ambiguity, in Russian, just as in English. [As in: This rocket is meant for the children, i.e., to kill them; or: This rocket is to avenge our children? It’s exactly like when you say in English: “Do it for the children.”]

Along with the cruel message, the tail of the rocket also preserved its serial number.

So, what was the serial number of this rocket? Annoyingly, the reporter doesn’t tell us exactly, we have to infer it. [Maybe it’s a military secret, being kept for the war crimes trial?]:

The reporter quotes the Donetsk TV station Union which covered this story: “Prior to this [incident], in Donbass we have been shelled by Ukrainian rockets with the serial numbers Ш91565, Ш91566. The one that hit Kramatorsk is in the same numerical series, just 13 numbers different.”

yalensis: So, that would be, say, Ш91579 ? According to the reporter, this proves that, not only was this rocket part of the same Ukrainian series, but even came from the same unit as the ones who have been shelling the Donbass since 2015. More precisely, the Ш91566 rocket was shot down over the Donbass city of Debal in 2015.

This Is The Real Russian Spring

“Shoot, if you must, this old gray head,
But spare your country’s flag,” she said.

(Barbara Frietchie, by John Greenleaf Whittier)

Those of us who follow the Russian scene, have never seen anything like this since the Great Patriotic War. The level of patriotism is off the charts. Well, that’s normal at the start of a war, but this is not the same thing as the usual war fever. The latter something usually drummed up by the government and elites. In this case, I would say that most of the fervor comes from below and does not necessarily even match the narrative of the ruling elite. In fact, we have seen patriotic bloggers, especially pro-Russian Ukrainians like Podolyaka and Onufriyenko, express disgust with the Kremlin and its various talking heads. They see Putin’s inner circle, if not Putin himself (“The Tsar is surrounded by traitors!”) as overly cautious, too sensitive to European public opinion, not willing to go all the way, not prepared to finish what they started. The Russian people, in its overwhelming mass, wants to win this war. They do not want a negotiated settlement that would leave the Kiev regime intact. They want nothing short of a complete and total victory, with Zelensky signing capitulation papers for unconditional surrender, and then hustled off to Moscow for his War Crimes trial. They want to see the perpetrators punished, those Azov beasts who tortured the Donbass people for 8 years and burned Odessa citizens alive. They want to see the triumph of Justice and a true de-Nazification of the Ukraine. Whether or not we shall witness such a maximalist triumph, is another question. But it is indisputably what the Russian people want to see.

Donbass militias plant the flag they love the most.

Well, except for a few, of course. There is that segment of the Putinite bourgeoisie (embodied by the likes of Dmitry Peskov and Xenia Sobchak) who still look to Europe for guidance and feel a bit embarrassed by this whole thing. (“Like, all of a sudden we are the barbarians, eek!”)

There is another segment of the Putinites who are more nationalistic, the Diunovs and the Medinskys and other quasi-fascists. It was probably to cater to this crowd, some of which can be characterized as out-and-out Vlasovites (Diunov, in particular, but Medinsky also had his moments in the past, when he defended the likes of Mannerheim), that Putin included the bullet point of “de-Communization” of the Ukraine, alongside “de-Nazification” as strategic goals. Methinks Putin was half-joking about the de-Communization, but Russian Nationalists like Diunov take this point seriously, blaming Lenin for the Ukrainian debacle. With these types there is bound to be a sense of cognitive dissonance when they see ordinary workers and soldiers from the Donbass carrying that flag that the Great Russian Chauvinists hate so much; that red flag with the hammer/sickle; running it up the flagpoles of liberated Donbass towns. The symbolism is fairly clear to anybody who knows a smattering of Russian history:

  • De-Nazification = planting the red banner of victory replica from the Great Patriotic War
  • De-Communization = planting the Russian tricolor which was the flag of the Kerensky government; and also emphasizing the Tsarist past of Novorossiya.

Either way, the Ukrainian flag and other symbolica goes away. For example in Kherson, the Russian tricolor was raised on the flagpole, the Ukrainian sob-story placards about the “Heavenly Hundred” were removed, and the street was named back from “Heavenly Hundred” to its original name of Svoboda (=”Freedom”).

Russian patriotism went off the charts.

It’s possible to build an uneasy alliance between the “red banner” types and the “tricolor” types, they all drive under the common letter of “Z”.

However, there are signs that certain members of the Putin crowd will no longer be accepted at the “Cool Kids” lunch table. People like Dmitry Peskov, for example. After the videos came out, of Russian POWs being tortured and murdered by Ukrainian Nazis, Russian patriotism hardened into righteous rage. There was no more tolerance for Peskov’s mild-mannered dithering and kow-towing to the European press and leadership. (“For sure, we have suffered serious losses on our side,” he reassured the Europeans.)

Popular pro-Russian Ukrainian blogger Mikhail Onufriyenko coined the viral internet meme, “We are not Peskov”. (“My ne Peskovy.”) From a Marxist POV Onufriyenko and the like represent the ordinary working class, they are pro-Soviet, pro-Russian and pro-red flag. Which puts them at odds with both wings of the Putinite coalition.

“We Have Been Waiting For You”

It was within this emotional and political ferment, that the Russian people found their new hero, a hero whose lined and worn, but noble visage embodies the entire face of the war. This nameless hero is a little old lady living in a remote Ukrainian town. Nobody knows her name, but every Russian patriot is rooting for her. She embodies that unbreakable link between the Great Patriotic War and the de-Nazification “special op”, here is her story:

This woman, who is very old and probably half-blind, saw soldiers approaching her hut. She assumed they were Russians. Grabbing her red banner of victory, she went out into her yard to greet them: “Welcome, Russian soldiers! We have been waiting for you, and we have been praying for you!”

She was lucky these were just ordinary Ukrainian soldiers and not ferocious Azov types, who probably would have slaughtered her on the spot. Instead, they just contented themselves with trampling her flag into the dirt and making fun of her. After which, to their credit, they were kind enough (like that old rogue Stonewall Jackson in regard to Barbara Frietchie, they still had a bit of a conscience left in their hollow hearts) to offer her some food.

The Ukrainian peasant woman proudly refused their chow, once it finally dawned on her who these guys actually were. The Ukrainian soldiers videotaped the encounter (of course they did) and loaded it up to the internet, probably so their friends could enjoy laughing at the addled old woman. Unbeknownst to them, this video ignited a secondary wave of patriotism that swept through Russia. “This was the most motivational video ever,” certain bloggers declared. Artists rushed to depict the iconic moment.

This is something that Ukrainian Nationalists and Russian Liberals alike can never understand: When neo-Nazis trample on the Banner of Victory, they are trampling on the Holy of Holies, on everything that is held sacred by the Russian people. This banner, which flew over the Reichstag, is the symbol of their losses and their victory, during the Great Patriotic War. To Russians, this is literally the answer to the question: “Why we fight…”

And also reminding people that the current war is just a continuation of the previous one; and also fought against (more or less) the same people as the last one. QED.

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19 Responses to Ukraine War Day #46: The Face Of The New Russian Spring

  1. Stephen T Johnson says:

    Damn right! The public outpouring of patriotism / nationalism / maximalism, whatever you want to call it is amazing. It really took off after poor old Medinsky stepped in it, and I doubt it’s even near the peak. Victory day in the Donbass is going to be a hell of a blowout, I’d bet, and I don’t think there’s any question that the Ukrainian granny will become an icon of the struggle.
    On the military front, it’s interesting that it looks like it’s just going to be a gradual ramp up of force in the Donbass, no dramatic day you can pin the offensive to. Interesting times.

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    • yalensis says:

      When this thing first started, there was hope that May 2 could find Russia/DPR forces in Odessa to punish the perps. Now that’s only 3 weeks away and looking like is not enough time to finish the job even in Nikolaev let alone in Odessa.
      I hasten to add, that I don’t subscribe to the “Stalinist” idea of pushing for a particular holiday or anniversary just for the sake of it. It’s not worth sacrificing troops just to meet some spectacular deadline. If things work out with synchronicity, then that’s great, but the project timeline should not be pushed just for the sake of it. These things have to be done in their own time, their own way.

      Having said that, yeah, May 9 is bound to be corker in Donetsk/Luhansk!

      Liked by 1 person

  2. Lex says:

    Babushka Z is the meme of this war. The end of the clip came out too, she demands her flag back and they say no. The Mariupol interviews that are most opinionated are heavily slanted towards babushkas too. Never mind angering the bear. Angering the babushkas is far more terrifying, they are Mother Russia.

    Interesting take on the domestic pressure. I hadn’t thought of that angle on the “de-communize” statement. I heard breaking it up and a potential end game of pre-1939 borders. If I were Putin, it’s what I’d want. Leave the west for the west to deal with. The whole doesn’t integrate very well economically anyhow. The actual ethnic Ukrainians may be happy with that, and in any case all the Ukrainian-Polish-Hungarian-Romanian issues wouldn’t be my problem. Would it satisfy the factions in Russia though?

    I try to tell people that bringing down Putin is not going to lead anywhere the west wants to go. It fries a lot of brains. Sometimes I like to whisper that Navalny thinks Russia should keep crimea.

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    • yalensis says:

      From what I understand, Putin is under enormous domestic pressure to finish the war in a way that would be considered a victory by the Russian people. I know that gamers like to play with a lot of scenarios, there is the “Kiev” scenario and the “Lvov” scenario. I used to think the Russians might toss Lvov to the Polish hyena, but I don’t believe that any more. Poland was a bad little boy and don’t deserve Lvov; besides, Russia don’t need NATO nukes that close to the future border. Maybe they will leave Lvov to the future rump de-militarized Ukraine (?)
      I do believe there is a chance, however, that Russia will allow Hungary to take her slice of Transcarpathia. The Hungarians have been nice, to the extent that NATO lets them be nice.

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      • Lex says:

        I can certainly believe that (I haven’t followed domestic Russian politics closely in a while). I even understand the sentiment to a degree. I wouldn’t want the hassle of trying to manage the western oblasts and the task of de-nazifying them. As for the rest of Eastern Europe, I’d play the long game. Let’s say Pepe is right and Mariupol becomes a BRI terminus. Chinese money could fund a rebuilding of Mariupol and be a huge jobs program (extend this to much of eastern Ukraine). Make eastern Ukraine gleam and build a vigorous Black Sea trade.

        The Eastern Europeans will learn some lessons from all the talk and no real help from NATO. 2.5 million Ukrainians in Poland who kinda hate the Poles and what appears to be a declining living standard in Europe is easier than war. Maybe more effective too. The Ukrainian Nazis are pissed off at their “friends” if the last missive from Mariupol is any indication. Herd the hard core guys west. They’ll turn those fancy weapons and terrorism training against Europe, IMO. Softer target than a militarized border in modern Ukraine.

        Emotionally, I agree with the Russian sentiment. I’m just of the opinion that the usual prelude to failure in the “great game” is going too far before the time is right. A lot of the world is destabilizing quickly. That going past a tipping point is bad for Russia in the grand scheme of things. The sino-Russian partnership needs to be able to show it can give stability and increasing prosperity to the global south. Too long a war will make that difficult and could well undermine the global media coverage of this conflict which is consistently painting Russia as all the things the US claims to be. Not sure that could survive war in the west of Ukraine.

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        • yalensis says:

          Great comment, Lex. I had to google BRI (=Belt and Road Initiative). Yes, hopefully this is the look of the future, with a China-Russia economic alliance, and great investment opportunities for the Chinese, agreed! (That infrastructure isn’t going to rebuild itself, but fortunately the Chinese have a lot of $$$$, and the Russians/Ukrainians have a lot of construction expertise and excellently trained labor force.)

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  3. mato48 says:

    A heartwarming story and just what I needed after reading the daily obligatory defamation and slander of Russia in Western media.

    Russia needs more drones, anti drone weapons, and more EW (Divnomorye-U, Krasukha-4). Russia needs to develop and train innovative counterinsurgency tactics, because a merciless insurgency by fanatical fascists worse than Islamic State brutes will be the inevitable continuation and open end of this operation..

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    • yalensis says:

      I agree. Ukrainian fascists are even worse than ISIS in many ways. Ukraine has become the dark heart of a dark continent.
      Was just reading this morning that the pro-Russian blogging team of Podolyaka-Onufriyenko had to go into hiding. They were both living somewhere in Simferopol, and both received death threats from Ukrainian secret police. SBU would have sent assassins into Crimea to kill them, because Ukrainian government will not tolerate journalists or bloggers who say the wrong thing.
      Russian army whisked them both into hiding, I watched both of their podcasts this morning, as they both posted separately (but apparently from the same safe house where they are now forced to live as roommates!)
      [could be a Ukrainian sitcom there: The Odd Couple, starring the handsome and authoritative Yury, versus the stocky and lovable Misha…]

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  4. Ben says:

    The Tochka-U can be equipped with various warheads. But the one fired at the train station was equipped with a fragmentation warhead, the only purpose of which is to kill people. If the narrative is that Russia was trying to take out the tracks, it falls apart because 1. they’d already done that further down the line, and 2. they wouldn’t have fired something with a frag warhead. Shrapnel munitions are useless against equipment. There’s a long history of this; part of the reason the Somme turned out such a disaster for the British is because they mostly fired shrapnel shells during the preparatory artillery barrages, which left the barbed wire and trenches essentially intact.

    Oh, also 3. there’s the little fact that the engine part of the rocket, which detaches shortly before the warhead detonates, was found south-southwest of the detonation point, which indicates the direction it was fired from. And there are zero Russian forces in that direction. Oops.

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    • yalensis says:

      Yup, I was reading a lot of comments about this online in various blogs, including DPA. Eventually became convinced that the Serial # thing is not conclusive (it’s more like a corroborative piece of the puzzle); but the truly conclusive piece of evidence is the direction the thing came from.
      Some guy on DPA blog explained exactly the point you just made: that the engine/tail of the rocket detaches and falls to ground (and it just FALLS straight down, it doesn’t fly) while the warhead continues on for a while. After that it is simple math to compare where the tail landed with where the head exploded, to figure out from which direction was launched. From the Southwest, in this case. Ukrainian-controlled territory. So the Ukrainians dunnit, for sure.

      It’s not even rocket science, as the joke goes!

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    • yalensis says:

      P.S. I have another theory about that “For the children” message which the Ukrainian soldiers (most likely) scrawled on the tail of the rocket. It’s a rather ugly story, I was just reading about it yesterday on DPA’s blog. Ukrainians have been accusing Russian army of raping their (=Ukrainian) children. It’s the latest mass hysteria among the ethnic Ukrainians.

      Ugly story short (it’s a very ugly story): Some Russian soldier-pervert who was supposed to serve in Ukraine (evidence is, that he was apprehended and arrested while still back in Russia, before he even made it to Ukrainian front) posted some ugly stuff on his social media; or what passes for the Russian version of the Dark Web.
      Apparently this guy has a coprophagia fetish (i.e., eats shit, for the layperson). He posted videos of himself poking himself in the anus with various implements and then putting in his mouth (YEEOOCCH!)

      In one of his posted videos this deviant employed a toddler to help out with the perversion. I haven’t seen the vid, would not care to, Wyatt over at DPA watched it and describes what happens: The pervert takes an eyebrow brush and lightly brushes along an infant’s ass-crack, and then places the brush in his own mouth. For sure this constitutes child abuse, but there is no evidence the kid is Ukrainian, probably is not, in fact.
      Anyhow, the Russian authorities were informed of this guy and took down his site, presumably also arrested him, back in early March. Most likely before he ever made it to the front with the rest of his unit.
      But one can imagine the Ukrainians made so much hay out of this, claimed the guy had done this to a Ukrainian kid; and then extrapolated from that, that all Russian soldiers are child rapists.

      Long way of explaining my new theory why they wrote “For the children” on the cluster-bomb rocket. I think their thought was: that they would murder (ethnic Russian) Kramatorsk kids at the railroad station, to get even for what the Russians allegedly did to their own (ethnic Ukrainian) kids.

      Very ugly stuff. Please god, let this war end soon!

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      • Ben says:

        Oh, that story. Nice to have confirmation there was ever anything to it; i figured it was simply entirely made up for the benefit of English speakers (they’d be unlikely to be be able to confirm whether there ever was such a thing or whether Russian language sockal media was talking about it).

        Not sure it works though as an explanation for the graffiti. Since this is a false flag, the writing would also have been fake and planted as well, right? Unless…did…did the Ukrainians not expect the engine section to be discovered? Do these fucking morons not know how their own weapons work?

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        • yalensis says:

          These Nazi morons are well known for writing scat on their bullets and rockets. That’s exactly like them. And no, they didn’t think far enough ahead to realize the engine section would be discovered. Plus, they are used to having Westie media just gobble up unquestioningly every lie they spew out.
          In a world where there are no fact checkers, the liars just get lazy.

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  5. Aule Valar says:

    The whole missile attack atrocity propaganda *should* have fallen apart the moment it became clear it was Tochka and not Iskander. The fact that it didn’t only speaks about the power of Western propaganda machine and its complete willingness to close its eyes on reality.

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    • Ben says:

      Nah, the media just has to avoid mentioning that Russia doesn’t use the Tochka-U anymore. Most people aren’t informed on the minutiae of military inventories.

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    • yalensis says:

      Well, there was a lot of fervent debate on various blogs, among people more intelligent than those apes you see on TV. Some pro-Ukrainians who are not complete morons argued in the blogosphere that (1) Russians never throw anything away [which is true]; (2) Tochka-U’s were decommissioned only a year or so before the Ukraine operation, so it’s not impossible a few still in use, especially among Seps; (3) Russians used Tochka-U’s as recently as Syria [I don’t know if that is true or not.]; (4) and even conceding that Russia had no motive to do this, it could have been a mistake or mis-fire, maybe they were targeting tracks further down the line. [Which makes no sense, since the cluster-munitions are specifically anti-personnel.]

      Therefore, that point about Tochka vs Iskander, is not necessarily a slam-dunk, but still corroborates the mainline theory. For me, the slam-dunk is the argument about the vector drawn between where the tail fell down, versus where the head hit. Which shows clearly and scientifically, that the rocket came from the Southwest, from Ukrainian-held territory.

      (Of course, the pro-Ukrainian nay-sayers can even twist that argument, positing that some rogue Sep unit might have been holed up in Ukrainian territory and shooting off rockets into Kramatorsk, why? just because they could…]

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      • Ben says:

        How would a Donbass or Russian unit even get that far undetected? No territory southwest of Kramatorsk has even been under Donbass or Russian control.

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