This post will complete a sort of trilogy on the “Broken Bridge” theme. The previous two were written from a Negative Nelly point of view, listing all the things to worry about.
Now we turn the mic over to Positive Polly, who asserts that everything is actually okay.
We shall start with this short piece by reporter Alexei Degtyarev. I translate in full:
Each charge [of dynamite] placed by Ukrainian saboteurs under the bridge near Melitopol, is estimated at 15-20 kg of the TNT equivalent, according the Acting Governor of Zaporozhie Oblast, Evgeny Balitsky.
The explosion of the bridge in the settlement of Konstantinovka, which is a suburb of Melitopol, this was simply a “mindless terrorist act”, directed mostly against peaceful civilians, since the bridge did not present any strategic importance, according to Balitsky.
He added that investigators are on the job, seeking out those responsible for this; and, once found, the perps will be punished “to the fullest extent of the law.”
Recall that the Ukrainian saboteurs damaged this bridge in Konstantinovka. From what we know so far, the dynamite charges were placed against the very pillars of the structure.
yalensis: In other words, Ukrainian terrorists learned their lesson from the Kerch Bridge: If you are going to bring down a bridge, you need to go after the supports. Anyhow, this positive spin has come out to counter gleeful Ukrainian propaganda of the past few days, which claims the attack on the Melitopol Bridge is just Step #1 of their Big Plan to re-conquer Crimea. I listed out the various steps in my previous blogposts, so I won’t bother repeating that.
Next we have this longer piece by reporter Alyona Zadorozhnaya. Her main source is an interview with Vladimir Rogov, who heads the pro-Russian political movement “We Are With Russia” in the Russian-controlled chunk of Zaporozhie. Rogov concedes that the Ukrainians believe they are well on the way to cutting off Russia’s land bridge to Crimea. “However, they didn’t take into account that the land bridge has more than one route.” In other words, there are built-in redundancies, so that the loss of that one bridge is just an inconvenience, but not necessarily catastrophic.
Rogov’s Analysis Of The Sitrep
Here is Rogov’s analysis, in more depth, of what is going on currently on the Zaporozhie part of the front.
Rogov: Recently our opponent has activated, along the whole line of contact, the artillery shelling of our positions. These strikes are coming from the areas of Oktyabrsky and Novogorovka. At the same time, our air defenses are shooting down their drones, which they are applying in the Northwest part of the region, on the border between Zaporozhie and Donetsk Oblasts.
In that same area the Ukrainians have made several attempts to attack our positions. Each time our return artillery fire forced them back to their starting positions. Nonetheless, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) never abandon their hope of crossing over from the Right Bank of the Dniepr and setting a landing party in the area of Energodar.
The good news is the record tempo with which Ukrainian artillery complexes are being destroyed, one by one. “Literally in the course of three days we liquidated around 15 of these systems, which included several HIMARS. Their [artillery] strike against Melitopol [yalensis: in which Ukry claimed to have destroyed a barracks chock full of Wagnerites] is their answer to us. They are trying to prove that they still have artillery and can strike where and when they please.
“Unfortunately, the enemy are expecting, in the coming weeks, deliveries of new weapons. However, they are experiencing some logistics issues, especially after our strikes at the transportation infrastructure around the area of Krivoy Rog. For example, it is harder for them to ship new tanks in.
“We also managed to destroy an enemy weapons cache, as a result of which the 102rd Brigade of UAF Territorial Defense was short on shells for a period of time. After that, the intensity of their shelling of our positions decreased sharply, but only for a while.
“And here I may say, with guarded optimism, that on the Zaporozhie front the initiative is slowly but surely, shifting in our favor. This is connected to the fact that our fighters already know the front line quite well, they have all the action split up into quadrants, and we are also finessing our ties and communication with that part of the local population who still live under Kiev’s control.
“The blowing up of that bridge in Melitopol – that was an attempt on the part of the UAF to probe our logistics. Just as they did in Kherson, the enemy wants to destroy the supply chain that brings in vital goods, food, medicines, and also military equipment.
“It is important to know that this is not the only supply route into Melitopol. In other words, this is factually more damaging to the comfort of the residents of Melitopol and Berdyansk, their ability to communicate with each other. Now they will have to make a detour of maybe a dozen or two kilometers, in order to get from one town to the other.
“It is remarkable that, after committing this act, the enemy started to crow about cutting off our land bridge to Crimea. That’s just wishful thinking on their part, because the main supply routes from mainland Russia to Crimea actually go a different way. Nonetheless, we must remain vigilant at all times.”
Every day, for months on end, the daily news is the same. ‘Russians liquidate 40 Ukrainians and 20 tanks in Whoknowsov’. It’s not like Ernie Pyle is reporting. Who knows if any of this is true. It’s just wearing really thin. The mighty Russian military seems always to be fighting, is said to be winning but somehow never gets anywhere. When will it show up in Montreal? Or Wawa? Sure as hell they must have dug that far by now.
Well, didn’t Ernie Pyle go on reporting for 4 years or more? That was WWII.
Now it’s WWIII, and it’s “only” been 9 1/2 months. One needs to be patient.
This from Col. Cassad this morning “Just returned once again from under Novoselovsky. According to the situation, I can say the following. The Ukrainian army is squeezed out on the outskirts of this settlement. It remains to take under our control is quite a bit. ”
Gee. a whole neighborhood. At this rate the Red Army would need 30 years to get near Berlin.
If the RF strategy was to capture terrain, that might be relevant. The objective, however, is demilitarization, in this case the classic Clausewitzian destruction of the enemy force, since negotiation is not possible. The Artemovsk meatgrinder seems to be performing that function admirably. It’s gruesome, but I think that’s the case.
John: It is what it is.
Besides, I think you are promoting a logical fallacy here. This is not a linear equation. It could happen in war that soldiers need a month to take a single building, but then they could progress 100 km in the course of a single day.
LikeLiked by 1 person
The Russians do not plan to reach Berlin and real life says that the Ucronazis see their forces diminished day by day, and the West needs good news every day even if they are insignificant or false because with the arrival of winter the streets will warm up.
Show me where the First Guards Tank Army is currently deployed. Oh. They must still be on their extended yoga retreat.
Whose bright idea was it to sideline the Russian Army “A” Team?
If the Russian flag had been flying over Lvov – as it could have been – Russia’s position would be much enhanced. To have victorious in the field a full mobilized army of such size. The US/EU could never marshall a rival. And ,a lot of ammo would not have to be fired.
The advantages of the cautious strategy are true as stated. Yet though not great, the continous losses over-reach those which would have been suffered in a quick and final campaign. This drip, drip, drip wears down civilian morale.
Somehow, the Russians just can’t suck it up to finish the matter. The optics of this are unpleasant. And easily avoidable.
Maybe they should fire Surovikin and put you in charge.
Everything I wrote was inspired by Russians expressing themselves in the Telegram/Russian media.
Why don’t you address the Where is the First Guards Tank Army matter? It’s a fair put.
Okay, I looked them up in Russian wikipedia , I don’t know who wrote the wiki article, or whether it’s accurate or not. Just by the tone, even though it’s written in Russian, it seems like it was written by pro-Ukrs.
But anyhow, what they write is that the First Guards Tank Army apparently fell on very bad times recently, despite their glorious history.
wiki: During Phase #1 of the SMO, the 1st Tank Army (according to British intelligence) suffered tremendous losses, on the Kiev and Kharkov fronts. Just in the first few days of the war. Ukrainians claim those guys lost 131 tanks and 409 soldiers just in the first 19 days of the war. [Well, that’s according to the Brits and Ukrainians, so maybe one takes with a grain of salt.]
wiki continues: During Phase #2, the guards continued their streak of bad luck on the Izyum front. Again, this is according to British intel. They were never quite the same as they used to be. Forced to retreat from Izyum, they were dispatched to defend Kherson. Where they continued their streak of bad luck…. Seems like these guys can’t do anything right.
But also doesn’t seem like they are living it up in seaside resorts either, so I don’t know who you’re reading…
Ok. I didn’t say you didn’t have to make any sense.
You must be feeling pretty stupid right about now.
Where the hell’s that First Guards Tank Army?
Answer the fucking question or go blow.
Buzz off, mendacious troll!
I saw this same guy (Thurloe) yesterday on MOA performing the same tap dance as he does here.
What an obnoxious loser you are, John. Do you always visit other people’s blogs and demand that they “answer the fucking question or go blow”!? Pardon my French, but what a fucking asshole you are.
Every Google reference to the First Guards Tank Army leads to the Ukie/Brit stories of their total destruction. There are No contemporary news reports of this in Russian media. Below, is the Order of Battle for this force:
1st Guards Tank Army – Order of Battle
27th separate guards motorized infantry brigade, military unit 61899 (Moscow, Leninsky district, Mosrentgen settlement): command, 1st motorized infantry battalion, 2nd motorized infantry battalion, 3rd motorized infantry battalion, infantry company (snipers ), tank battalion, howitzer self-propelled artillery battalion, anti-aircraft missile and artillery battalion, reconnaissance company, control (communications) battalion, material support battalion, repair and reconditioning company, combat engineer company, commandant company, RCBZ company, medical company, battery management eniya and artillery reconnaissance (chief of artillery), a platoon control and radar reconnaissance (Chief of Air Defense), the control platoon (chief of the intelligence department), platoon trainers, simulators platoon, polygon band. In service: 41 units. T-90A, 42 units BMP-3, 98 units. BTR-82A, 27 units. BTR-80A, 18 units. 152mm cr 2C3 “Acacia”, 18 units 120 mm mortar 2C12 “Sled”, 4 units. BRDM-2, 6 units BM 9A34 (35) “Arrow-10”, 6 units ZSU 2S6M “Tunguska”, 27 units. MANPADS 9K38 “Needle”.
6th separate tank brigade, military unit 54096 (Nizhny Novgorod Region, Dzerzhinsk): command, 1st tank battalion, 2nd tank battalion, 3rd tank battalion, motorized rifle battalion, rifle company (snipers), howitzer self-propelled artillery battalion, rocket artillery battalion, anti-aircraft missile battalion, anti-aircraft battalion, reconnaissance company, engineer and combat engineer company, RCBM company, control (communications) company, electronic warfare company, material support battalion, repair and restoration battalion, commandant’s company R ota, platoon of the department (chief of artillery), platoon of the department and radar reconnaissance (head of the air defense), platoon of the department (head of the intelligence department), platoon of instructors, platoon of simulators, training ground, military orchestra. 2901 people l / s. In service: 94 units. T-70B3, 37 units BMP-3, 18 units. BM-21 Grad, 18 units 152mm cr 2S3 “Acacia”, 8 units 120 mm mortars 2S12 “Sled”, 6 units BTR-80, 3 units. BRM-3K, 12 units BM 9A33BM2 (3) Wasp, 6 units BM 9A34 (35) “Arrow-10”, 6 units ZSU 2S6M “Tunguska”.
96th separate reconnaissance brigade, military unit 52634 (Nizhny Novgorod, Sormovo) : command, reconnaissance battalion (1st company of the Special Forces, 2nd company of the Special Forces, 3rd reconnaissance and landing company, 4th company reconnaissance equipment, communications platoon, support platoon), electronic reconnaissance battalion (electronic reconnaissance company, electronic warfare company, communications platoon, support platoon), control battalion, UAV company, material support company, technical support company, commandant company, psychological operations unit, engineering platoon, radiochemistry group intelligence, first-aid post.
288th Warsaw Brandenburg Artillery Red Banner Orders of Kutuzov, Bogdan Khmelnitsky and Red Star Brigade, military unit 30683 (village Mulino, Volodarsky District, Nizhny Novgorod Region): command, 1st howitzer artillery division, 2nd howitzer artillery division , anti-tank division, reconnaissance artillery division, control battery, material support company, repair company, engineer-sapper platoon, RCBP platoon. In service: 8 units. 9P140 “Hurricane”, 36 units. 152mm 2A65 Msta-B, 6 units 100 mm MT-12, 18 units 9P149 “Sturm-S”.
112th Guards Missile Brigade at OTRK 9K720 Iskander-M, military unit 03333 (Ivanovo Region, Shuya, Southern Town): command, 3 missile divisions, missile and technical division, supply and escort division, battery management. Each missile division has 2 batteries, 2 SPU and 2 TZM batteries in the battery. Total: 12 units SPU 9P78-1, 12 units. transport-loading machines 9T250, 11 units command and staff vehicles 9S552, 14 units life support machines, 1 unit Information preparation point 9S920, 1 unit routine maintenance machine, 9 units R-145BM.
53rd anti-aircraft missile brigade at the 9K37 Buk-M1 air defense system, military unit 32406 (Kursk region, Kursk district, Marshala Zhukov settlement): control, four anti-aircraft missile battalions with their 9C470M1 control centers, 9C18M1 detection and target designation station ” Kupol-M1 “, with a communications platoon and three anti-aircraft missile batteries with two 9A310M1 self-propelled firing systems and one 9A39 launcher and charging unit in each, as well as technical support and maintenance units.
60th management team, military unit 76736 (village of Selyatino, Naro-Fominsk district and village of Bakovka, Odintsovo district, Moscow region).
69th separate MTO brigade, military unit 11385 (Nizhny Novgorod Region, Dzerzhinsk ).
20th Regiment of the Russian Chechen-Chemical Plant, military unit 12102 (Nizhny Novgorod, Central Town): management, 1st RKhBZ battalion (RKhBZ company, special processing company), 2nd RKhBZ battalion (RKhBZ company, special processing company), flamethrower battalion (1st and 2nd flamethrower companies, heavy flamethrower company on TOS- 1A “Solntsepek”), aerosol countermeasures battalion, company RBF reconnaissance, communications platoon, material support platoon, technical platoon, first-aid post. In service: 3 units. TOS-1A “Solntsepek”, RPO-A “Bumblebee”, RPO PDM-A “Prize”, radiation and chemical reconnaissance vehicles RXM-4-01, chemical reconnaissance vehicles RHM-6, heat treatment machines for weapons and military equipment TMS-65U , machines for special processing of weapons and special equipment ARS-14KM machines for setting smoke curtains TDA-2K.
Link, please. Where did you obtain that Order of Battle?
Just the link, please, and try to avoid condescension and insults in your reply.
Restoration of the bridge should be fairly quick, I think. Lay down some suitable footings, bring in some big hydraulic jacks and add some new supports, and you should be good to go, unless there’s some structural subtleties I’m missing.
I know. I mean, it’s just a regular highway bridge, not some monstrosity like the Kerch Strait.
Thanks Yalensis for keeping ultramarathons of updates, may the force continue to be with you
LikeLiked by 1 person
Thanks, Nicola, whew! And thanks for sticking with me.
I wouldn’t have been able to keep this up so long, but my saving grace is that I am a very fast typist on a computer keyboard.
LikeLiked by 2 people
While I do think that Russia has to end this war; as the “elites” in the west have no interest in ending the slaughter of Slavic peoples. Quite the contrary, western “elites” racist ideology allows them to enjoy the spectacle just as their antecedents enjoyed the activities in the coliseum. What baffles me is, what does the average soldier in Ulrainia get out his self-immolation, surely not the pure joy experienced by those courtiers in Caesar’s box…eh?
Having said that, only a foolish man, wishing to display his impotence to the world, would make demands of the Russian high-command. But apparently, displaying impotence suits one of our commenters here.
“Who cares about 404? We’ve got bigger fish to fry!” – Blackface Trudeau
Canada changes figure skating gender rules – Link to RT
Skating on thin ice.
” Teams in ice dance and pairs events no longer need to consist of one male and one female skater. Instead, the definition of a team has been revised to state that it should “consist of two skaters.”
I don’t know if anyone remembers that comedy movie, “Blades of Glory” from 2007. Will Ferrell and Jon Heder portray 2 male individual figure skaters who team up as pairs skaters (using a loophole in the rules) to win the Olympics. When the movie came out, I remember somebody from the skating world interviewing American skating legend Scott Hamilton, and asking him if such a thing could theoretically happen in reality. Scott’s reply: “Highly dubious.”
Only goes to show, never say never!
May take is that it’s the goal to create all these ‘minorities’ [check the endless list of pronouns], so 1 minority doesn’t stick out too much, as per the tried ol’ adage of ‘Divide & Rule.’
I’ll report back to these clowns, once I have [had] my first period…
wow, he must have learned the secret of immortality!
OK Ice scaters is your reply. You deserve Lenin’s scorn.
Really? Where the hell’s that First Army Tank Guard buddy? Mind pointing where that is? Or just fuck ov.
This is where you find it convenient to sell a narrative or tell the truth as you find it. I watch you.
Please adjust your tone, John. Cut the abuse, the petulant demands, and the veiled threats.
Please just limit yourself to expressing opinions and imparting information.
Otherwise, you will no longer be welcome on this forum.
This might be of interest: “The White House did not confirm reports of plans to transfer the Patriot air defense system to Kiev – Link to RIA
Hm.. everybody else is talking about it like it’s a done deal.