Dear Readers:
Today’s post is a quick follow-up to yesterday’s, because there was so much good discussion. Not to mention lots more things for the pro-Russian side to worry about! And if you are a worrier like me… it’s not that I enjoy worrying, it’s just that I can’t help myself. I should have gone into a career in Risk Management. Anyhow, the big question on the agenda: Is NATO planning its next big offensive in the Zaporozhie direction?
Commenter Daniel posted this link to a piece about the recent Ukrainian attack on a key bridge in Melitopol. That highway bridge forms part of the road linking the city of Melitopol to the Port of Berdyansk. I believe that this attack is a component of NATO’s master plan to re-take the Azov Sea. Which would then cut the Russian forces in half, also cut off Russian logistics and supplies which drive over the “land bridge” from the Russian mainland. If you look at the map below, I drew (somewhat crudely) the route of the land-bridge. Trucks carrying vital supplies drive starting from, say, Rostov-on-Don in Russia, then through Mariupol, Melitopol, Left-Bank Kherson, and into the Crimean peninsula. This is the “long way around” which has to be used if /when the Kerch Strait Bridge is not available. Hence, if the Ukrainians/NATO can destroy the Kerch Bridge once and for all; and cut off even this long truck route, then Crimea is screwed. That’s the theory.
Current available information indicates that the damage to the Melitopol bridge was caused not by HIMARS rockets, but by in-place sabotage, i.e., saboteurs sneaking around and placing mines or bombs directly against the pillars of the bridge. Which also raises a tricky question: If a single object is that important, then why is it not guarded 24/7?
Commenter Beluga coined the phrase “Cat among the pigeons”, to point out the dangers and risks caused by the damage just to this one bridge in Melitopol. I decided that would make a good title for my post.
I will conclude with this tweet from Rybar dated today (13 December), which describes Ukrainian preparations for their Zaporozhie counter-offensive. Rybar is considered one of the most reliable and objective of the pro-Russian channels:
Сейчас командование ВСУ использует аналогичную с Херсонским направлением тактику вскрытия тыловых позиций, складов и путей снабжения и мест дислокации ВС РФ на удалении от линии фронта и нанесения ударов с помощью РСЗО HIMARS и проведения диверсий.
Точные данные о местоположении важных объектов ВСУ получают от осведомителей на местах и от иностранных партнёров, ежедневно передающих сведения с искусственных спутников Земли.
Только после выведния из строя тыловых объектов, мостов и средств ЗРК украинские формирования смогут пойти в наступление с целью прорыва к Азовскому морю и выходу к полуострову Крым.
При этом нельзя исключать искусственное нагнетание обстановки вокруг Запорожья и Крыма с целью отвлечения российских войск и стягивания внимания к ложному участку для проведения наступления на других направлениях.
TRANSLATION:
Currently the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) command are using a tactic analogous to the one they used in the Kherson direction; namely probing and trying to discover the rear positions, arms caches and communications routes, and the places where troops of the Russian Federation are located farther from the front line, while also delivering HIMARS rocket strikes and conducting diversions and sabotage.
The UAF receives exact data about the location of important objects, from their spies in place, and from their foreign partners, who feed them satellite data every day.
Only after taking out objects in the rear, such as bridges and air-defense complexes, will the Ukrainian formations be able to go on the offensive, having the goal of breaking through to the Azov Sea; and from there to the Crimean peninsula.
However, one must not exclude the theory that the Ukrainians are artificially pressing on this Zaporozhie-Crimea front, in order to distract the attention of the Russian troops, while they attaack on other fronts.
Awful Avalanche 
We have heard 10 months of how a huge Ukrainian victory was just around the quarter, right now when Ukraine is weaker than ever, I just can’t believe it is more than PR.
In fact it took them 4 months or so even to capture the lightly guarded lands around Kharkov which fell into Russia’s hands during the great distraction and Kiev never bothered to chase the handful of guards out.
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No one can believe that the Ucronazis have some kind of tactic or strategy, they just try to do damage where they can, seeking to appear in the Western media so that the West continues to send money and drugs.
And Merkel’s revelation indicates that everything is directed from the outside from the beginning and that the target was always Russia, which is too big a bite for some late-night Nazis and a bunch of porn artists.
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But still, I feel that some NATO generals behind the scenes are planning some of these bigger, more strategic operations; and they can’t all be idiots.
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@ yalensis,
I real life [and in real fights], you go for the jugular ASAP. Russia’s [western jugular] is the depletion of anything military it faces in this fight, and it’s grinding it down as we speak. Western countries’ stock houses are empty. There’s nothing left to send to 404. HIMARS were a game changer…? Really? Where’s the footage showing us Russians on the run? Where’s the footage showing us 404 heroic victories…?
There are non.
As a country, it’s impossible to guard yourself against terrorist/guerrilla attacks, because they tend to be on a small and/or local level, and disperse quickly.
Russia will win this, but at a way she chooses.
I say this as an observer. I have no insight into [or am privy to] what Russia’s top brass is up to.
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With due respect, at this point, Ukrainia is little more than grist for the mill, the war is run by US commanders and lower down the food chain, there are US commanders who want to make a name for themselves and when you have dealt yourself a losing hand, you have far more freedom than an ordinary commander.
So, imagine you command troops where no how matter wasteful you are with their lives you are NOT accountable for deaths! As a US Commander in Ukrainia you know that no matter how badly you are entrapped, you, the commander, will be helicoptered out to the comforts and adulation of DC’s clique of sociopaths. Worst case, because you belong to a standing world power, you will be repatriated long before the wives of the men you slaughtered and maimed even know of their husbands fate.
With all this, high incentives, low personal risks, a US Commander in Ukrainia will take outrageous gambles and…some are bound to pay off. Y is right to worry.
Time may be on Russia’s side..briefly but, war is a dynamic thing and of late, the Russians are sitting back as if they are already in the birds cage…without a concern of it’s escape. That is a mistake, history is full of armies who waited for the enemy and found, to their demise, that they hadn’t thought of some detail. A detail that their enemy never would’ve discovered had they been harried at every turn.
Y has every good reason to be concerned, the goal of DC/London is not to “win the war”, the goal is to use Ukrainia’s soldiers as cheap cannon fodder to damage Russia, to damage Russia’s image in the emerging world all the while aiding DC/London maintain control of it’s fading neocolonial empire.
Russia is using it’s own resources & men, DC/London on the other hand, are playing with other peoples lives and money, all they have to do “succeed” is create long term chaos. Russia, needs to get on with it, for it’s own good, for the good of all ordinary citizens oaround the world and ironically, that includes the bottom 80% of US citizens.
Finally, as Cassandra admonished the Trojans, beware of any US Commander who emerges from the slaughter in Ukrainia as a heroic figure..that man is most likely a megalomaniac with frequent psychopathic episodes, a very, very dangerous man. The savagery of the US Command in Ukrainia is unprecedented, these players are some very disturbed characters.
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Cassandra the Prophetess was very explicit that the Trojans should not trust any American Commanders on the Ukraianian battlefield. Due to their nefarious alliance with the Sea Monster!
🙂
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I am thinking any US officer who sought “adventure” in Ukraine to put a “feather” in his cap might make an exceptionally ruthless player in US politics.
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Oh, for Pete’s sake. The Ukies have to move out in the open where a five year old child could see them. “Bring me a five year old child!” – Marx. And, the Russian military has move than ample means to swat them all to hell. Excepting that the Russian command is directing a feeble, timid campaign. Having completly lost the initiative Russia gives the appearance of a lack of resolution. This whole business should have been over months ago. Any more of this and we must look to Russia – its people, the Duma, and the military to demand a change of course and for heads to roll for this.
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Sometimes it appesrs to me as if the Ulrainean Army can go as they like . whenever they like
WHERE IS THE RUSSIAN ARMY ?
Are they cozying up ..in training Camps ?
Or what are they doing ?
Is this Suroviki General just Fake ?
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@ olavleivar,
It’s going to be a very dark christmas in 404. That’s 4 sure.
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Russia could give 404 the German treatment: “You kill 1 of us…? We kill 600 of you!” but she doesn’t. In the next few days, more and more lights will go out in 404. In martial arts, you go after certain pressure points [to inflict pain], not the entire body.
Let us not forget that Russia lost close to 25,000,000 lives beating back the Germans.
Let us not forget Russian knows very well the utter devastation a war/wars causes.
Russia is not at war with the Ukrainian people. Russia at war with the US/west, and as such fights it in a way she sees fit.
Have we forgotten how many soldiers 404 loses every day…?
Have we forgotten that when you shoot huge amounts of bullets, missiles, shells every day, they wear down barrels that have to be replaced…?
Have we forgotten that there are no videos showing us the heroic battles fought [by 404 troops/mercenaries] and won against Russian troops…?
War’s pure evil, but blood is red no matter where it flows.
404’s begging for more money, more weapons, more of everything. Have you watched the economic numbers of 404…?
A true nightmare, but snorting Z still plays the worn down piano… What a d*ck!
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Most of those 25 Million were civilians. Military losses were less than half, around 10M.
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@ MrDomingo,
10 million you say… Wonder how many countries around the globe have that amount of citizens…?
I’m also sure, many people never heard of Tanya Savicheva,. right?
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