Ukraine War Day #263: The Cat On The Chain

У лукоморья дуб зеленый;	At Lukomorye there is a green oak tree;
Златая цепь на дубе том:	There is a golden chain tied around the tree:
И днем и ночью кот ученый	Both day and night a learned cat
Всё ходит по цепи кругом;	Walks in a circle while tied to the chain;
Идет направо — песнь заводит,	He walks to the right – sings a song,
Налево — сказку говорит.	Walks to the left – tells a story.

Dear Readers:

That, of course, is the famous opening stanza of Alexander Pushkin’s poem Ruslan and Ludmila. This charming fairy tale, set in times of medieval Rus, tells of the brave Knight Ruslan and his search for his kidnapped bride, Ludmila, daughter of Prince Vladimir of Kiev. The narrator hears this tale from the mouth of the Learned Cat of the Introduction.

The Wizard Chernomor took Ludmila to his fine palace in Crimea.

While frisky Princess Ludmila is busy learning the ins and outs of her kidnapper’s palace and garden, stealing his invisibility cap and learning the secret of his magical powers (= his mile-long beard!); meanwhile her frustrated hubby is trying his darndest to get her back so that they can finally consummate their marriage. As befits any Knight, Ruslan must set off on a quest and overcome many trials of his courage and fidelity, before his ultimate defeat of the Wizard Chernomor. The wizard’s name itself means “Black Sea” (Chornoe More), as befits a sorcerer who holds the Greek peninsula of Crimea as his base. And that’s not the only Black Sea reference here: the fabled Lukomorye (whose name means something like “Arc on the Sea”), the home base of Pushkin’s magical cat, has an actual physical location: It’s called the Kinburn Spit. In modern geographical terms, this fang-like sandbar poking out into the Black Sea, is considered to be a part of the Nikolaev Oblast of Ukraine.

But is the Kinburn Spit truly Ukrainian? Not if you asked Pushkin: “Там русской дух… там Русью пахнет!” (“The Russian spirit is there … it smells of Rus!”, Pushkin wrote about this magical location.) Well, Ukraina is Rus too, right? I would say yes, both Russians and Ukrainians were born of the same Mother. But Bandera says no, so what he says goes. Besides, the Ukrainian Banderas banned Pushkin and defaced his statues.

A Thorn In Ukraine’s Side

Well, technically the Spit still “smells” of Russia. In that the Russian army still has a post there. I saw this piece by reporter Andrei Rezchikov, which explains the current sitrep.

Rezchikov: After the Russians left Kherson, this [tiny] peninsula acquired even greater significance. From this sandbar (40 km in length times a mere 9 km in width) the Russians can shell objects in Nikolaev (a mere 50 km away) and surrounding areas from long-range artillery. This is the only chunk of Nikolaev Oblast that is under Russian control. This is the legendary Lukomorye of Pushkinian fame.

Russians soldiers first arrived there in June. During the battle for control, the Russian navy was able to sink the Ukrainian ship Vinnitsa. The Russian soldiers currently guarding this strategic location belong to a special anti-diversionary unit called Vikhr (Whirlwind). During that time of chaos, many ideas were being bandied about; it was thought that the Spit might form the bridgehead for a maritime attack against Nikolaev, after first blocking the port of Ochakov. Well, those ambitious plans never came to fruition.

It goes without saying that the Ukrainians want the Russians out of there; and want to return the Spit to their own control. For starters, to put an end to Russian shelling of Nikolaev. Ukrainian Special Ops located in Ochakov have been posed the task, how to get the Russians off the Spit. According to some media, the Ukrainians are preparing an operation using helicopters and riverboats (cutters). Although Ukraine doesn’t have much of a navy any more, they do have a Dniepr River flotilla, including cutters carrying rockets. In mid-September they did attempt a landing on the Spit, but were repulsed. We hereby enter into the now-familiar debate, similar to the previous Snake Island one; and then Kherson: Should Russia fight with all means to keep this bridgehead? Or should they leave? In other words, is it worth the effort to keep it?

First we hear the opinions of military expert Yury Knutov, who manages the Air Defense Museum for the Russian military. Knutov: We need to hold the Spit, because the ability to hammer Nikolaev with long-range artillery trumps every other consideration. “The most important thing now is to hold onto Zaporozhie and the Donetsk and Red Liman fronts. If the enemy is able to penetrate to Berdyansk, then there will be a serious problem with Crimea’s water supply; not to mention that such a move would divide our army into two pieces.”

Yury Knutov: We might leave it, but then we’ll be back next year…

Despite this, Knutov believes that a Russian retreat from the Spit is still a theoretical possibility, due to the factor of a difficult supply situation. He reassures that, even should Russia withdraw from the Spit, they could still take it back next year. [yalensis: Color me NOT reassured to hear such speculations!] After the newly mobilized troops are in place and Russia’s technological refurbishment is in full swing.

Military expert Vasily Dandykin, on the other hand, is convinced that Russia currently has the resources to hold and defend this strategic point. Especially now that the days are getting shorter. Dandykin: “Our troops out on the Spit are very experienced and battle-hardened guys. Troops rotation continues on schedule. We need to keep this Platzdarm in our rear, even taking into account that a portion of our troops freed up from Kherson are going to be thrown into the Zaporozhie front. Everything depends on the plans of the Russian Command, whatever they are planning for the winter campaign. Nonetheless, I am convinced that we can hold onto the Spit, taking into account all the components, including the naval aspect.”

Dandykin points out that the Kinburn Spit is a constant thorn in the side of the Ukrainians. Therefore they will continue their efforts to get it back. It’s all a timing issue now: The race to train all these newly-mobilized troops and get them into position. “The main advantage of the Spit is its proximity to Ochakov and Nikolaev. And also Kherson. All these points are very close to each other.”

In conclusion: What is going to happen with this amazing stretch of land? Which does indeed look like a thorn pointing right back to the mainland. Will the Russian army abandon it, as they did Snake Island? Or will they continue to hold onto this strategic location?

Nobody can see into the future. Except maybe the wise cat on the chain. He knows all the answers, but he isn’t telling!