Ukraine War Day #262: A Tale Of Two Victories

Schiller: The Joy of Victory

Froh, wie seine Sonnen fliegen,
Durch des Himmels prächtgen Plan,
Laufet, Brüder, eure Bahn,
Freudig wie ein Held zum Siegen.

Merrily, as His suns streak
Through heaven’s splendid plan,
Run, Brothers, run your course,
Joyously like a hero to victory.

(Friedrich Schiller, An die Freude, “Ode To Joy”)

Dear Readers:

First a quick note about the Russian victory in Pavlovka. (Yes, the Russians did take that village and finished clearing it of Ukrainian soldiers.) Nobody noticed, because this victory was sort of eclipsed by the much bigger Ukrainian triumph in Kherson; but it is still important, as Pavlovka opens the door for the Russian offensive on Ugledar.

Recall that a few days ago, on this forum, we had a lively discussion about whether or not there had been a mutiny, on the part of the Russian Pacific Fleet marines fighting in Pavlovka; or whether that story was a fake. My hunch was, there had been some kind of incident, maybe not a full-fledged mutiny, but certainly some very inappropriate public expression of disgruntlement. Recall that the elite Marines were fighting side by side with local Donbass commanders. Maybe there was some friction there, maybe not. It’s all speculation, because everybody is keeping mum.

The Russian flag is raised over Pavlovka. Wargonzo project publishes the first photographs of the village now taken under control by the Donetsk OBTF (Operational-Combat Tactical Formation) Kaskad, alongside units of the Pacific Fleet marines.

In any case, apparently everything is co-sympatico now. The Pavlovka victory washed away whatever differences there had been (if any). Donbass militiamen and Promorye Marines worked together to shoo the enemies away and seize the village. Medals were handed out: DPR head Denis Pushilin awarded the Medal of Valor (За отвагу) to 37 men who took part in the operation. The piece I linked does not state exactly which men received the medals, and which ones didn’t get a medal.

The Kherson Watchers

Moving on to our main course today: This piece is by reporter Andrei Rezchikov. The topic is the “Watchers” of Kherson. Actually, the Russian word ждуны (“zhduny”) literally means “waiters”, but I need to disambiguate because the English word can also mean a server at a restaurant; and that is not what we are talking about here. We are talking about the pro-Ukrainian elements in Kherson who remained in the city, watching and waiting for their heroes to return. We shall see below that these “watchers” are a politically organized and highly disciplined group of people; one might even call them members of “cadre” organizations, as they follow the Bandera Party Line. These people are highly motivated, because a joint Ukrainian/NATO victory would wash away (in their minds) the stain of the Soviet Victory of 1945. They cannot rejoice in that common victory over Nazism, they wish to feel the jubilation of their own victory. It is the job of Russia and her allies to deprive them of that anticipated ecstasy.

Rezchikov: On the internet we see more and more clips out of Kherson and surrounding towns, in which pro-Ukrainian citizens supposedly greet warmly the troops from the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF). Often, with flags in hand; more rarely, with flowers. Just how massive is this phenemenon, and are the people in Zelensky’s office producing these clips? [yalensis: always keeping in mind that Zelensky himself, and a lot of his people, come from the world of show business.]

Friday morning [i.e., yesterday] in the center of Kherson, a bunch of Ukrainian flags suddenly appeared. Social media started communicating about mass actions on the part of local residents, who came out to greet the Ukrainian soldiers. Keeping in mind that these demonstrations started already several hours before the Ukrainian troops arrived. Later, on social media, we saw people chanting “UAF! UAF!”

Pro-Ukraine activists raise their flag in Kherson.

This raised questions in the minds of many. If Kherson is truly a Russian city where, literally yesterday, Russian troops were posted, then where the heck did they suddenly come from, these dozens of people carrying Ukrainian flags and schmoozing with the Ukrainian soldiers? And how were these video clips produced?

Kiev political pundit Alexei Nechaev: “The answer is simple. First the UAF enters a populated point unopposed. They call this a liberation and there is a media accompaniment. Earlier, Ukrainian security services, via messengers, had already been in touch with local activists of the pro-Western parties. These activists are told that they need to prepare a pretty-looking reception for the UAF. And the activists themselves, as you can imagine, had for months being working as informants for the SBU or Ukrainian Military Intelligence.

“Where did these activists come from? The answer is also simple. Even the frailest political party in the Ukraine has their own network of party cells. For every 2,500 residents (which is the standard electoral grouping, by Ukrainian standards), there would be anywhere from 3-10 party activists, who would maintain constant ties with their curators from the Regional, Municipal, or Oblast level.

“It’s as simple as pie. The activists of the cells communicate upwards with useful information; and the instructions come down to them from above. Slash the tires of a Russian military official? Done. Perform some bit of sabotage? No problem. […] Such efforts cost the Ukrainians very little, with possibly a big payoff.”

Alexander Malkevich

Russian Parliamentarian Alexander Malkevich, who heads the Journalism Faculty of Kherson University: “Russia was very indulgent towards these Watchers. We never introduced draconian measures against the pro-Ukrainian citizenry. What we see happening now is result of our indulgent attitude towards our opponent and his supporters.

“One has to admit that the Ukrainian side possesses a very strong media machine. They brought certain people with them [into the Kherson region] and were able to issue commands to these Watchers to prepare the necessary props for their show.

“The way the material is presented, is also very important. A very small demonstration can be presented [in the media] as a massive one. Depending on the angle of the shot. These clips are filmed by professionals, but made to look like somebody just happened to grab it on their Smartphone. In reality, this is all taking place in just one spot in the middle of Kherson, where the central square is located. One can take a group of 40 people and create the effect of a massive march.”

Political pundit Vladimir Kornilov: “Nobody denies that there are, and were, UAF supporters in Kherson. Or that some of them may have gone out to greet the Ukrainian troops. They are hoping that the Ukrainian government will not persecute them. But unfortunately, these displays are not going to save the city from serious purges.”

Nechaev again: “Frequent changes of power, whether in a village or city, always have an effect on the patriotic feelings of the population. The same youth which yesterday attended concerts of United Russia, tomorrow will be listening, with the same ardor, to songs such as Our Father is Bandera, Our Mother is Ukraina. As performed by no-talent singers in embroidered shirts. Should we condemn them for participating in these types of displays? I don’t think so.

“This situation is partially a civil war, as Vladimir Putin mentioned at the Valdai Conference. In such circumstances, the local residents try to survive, as best they can. Ordinary people only care about the fact that winter is approaching. As for who just marched into the city — Russians or non-Russians, Reds or Whites, Petlyura or Makhno… People in these regions always had this kind of wait-and-see attitude, especially during the time of the Russian Civil War. Therefore, this problem of the Watchers will be resolved via our victory in the conflict. This is what we have to work for.”