Dear Readers:
One recalls that post-Maidan Ukraine (in contravention of all international and humanitarian law) had blocked (April 2014) the supply of fresh water to the Crimean peninsula. This was done in order to punish the Crimean residents for rejoining Russia. (And entice them to come home to Mama Ukraine.) To accomplish this misanthropic feat, the Ukrainians dammed the Severo-Krymsky Canal, an engineering marvel built in Soviet times, which feeds water, in a regulated fashion, from the Dnieper River to Kherson and Crimea. As one can see on the map, the Canal begins at the Novaya Kakhovka Dam and Reservoir, also built in Soviet times, as part of this vast and important waterway project.
Fresh water from the Dniepr flows through the sluices of the dam, winds along the canal, flowing through many towns and villages of Kherson and Crimea; and all the way to Kerch, at the very tip of the Crimean peninsula. Providing drinking water and farm irrigation for residents of Kherson and Crimea.
Just two days after the start of the Special Military Operation, Russian soldiers and engineers removed Ukrainian blocks from the Canal, releasing the precious water to Crimea. The promptness of their action was an indicator that this de-blocking of the water supply was an important factor in the decision to go to war.
Unfortunately, in the current situation, the water supply is once again under threat. This time due to Ukrainian rocket attacks against the Kakhovka Reservoir. I have this rather alarming piece by reporter Olga Ivanova. Here is a full translation:
The possibility of providing water to Crimea along the Severo-Krymsky Canal will vanish, if the Kakhovka Dam and Hydroelectric Station is blown up, this thought was declared by Novaya Kakhovka Administrative Head Vladimir Leontiev on an episode of Solovyov Live [tv show].
He stressed that, should the dam be blown up, then it would be many years before it could be repaired. In which case, the Canal would dry up and have no water.
The Canal has a huge significance for Crimea’s water supply, and also for replenishing the artesian wells that lurk beneath the steppe land of the peninsula. These wells are widely used in the central irrigation systems of the cities and villages of the region.
One recalls, that the Ukrainian Armed Forces, on Thursday [yesterday] once again launched rockets against the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Station. [yalensis: usually Russian press would follow a sentence like this with, “But all the rockets were shot down by anti-air”, but they don’t here, which is worrying.]
Earlier, Vladimir Leontiev had also warned that the Ukrainians were likely to attack the dam and hydroelectric station with naval mines.
Simulating Noah’s Flood
To recap the threat: IF the Ukrainians are able to blow up the Kakhovka Dam/Reservoir, then they will have achieved two major military objectives (in addition to just making themselves feel good in a spiteful kind of way): 1) They will once again deprive Crimea of fresh water; and 2) They will flood Kherson Oblast, intending to drive the Russian garrison back to the Left Bank of the much-widened river.
See, the ensuing rush of water would make the river very wide at that part. Not only would the Russian pontoon bridge be swept away (that’s the bridge that supplies the Russian garrison on the Right Bank, and the Russians cleverly built it underneath the remnants of the Antonov Bridge, which the Ukrainians already destroyed), but the entire region would be flooded, at least for a few days: homes, farms, villages, even the city of Kherson itself. By the time the water settled down and people tried to return to their homes, they would find everything rather squishy. A computer simulation shows what the ensuing flood might look like:
I took this simulation and image from Dima’s (Military Summary and Analysis) podcast from yesterday, which I recommend people to watch, Dima explains the situation, and what would happen, in the event.
This, by the way, is the exact possibility that General Surovikin has been warning about. Best option, obviously, is to somehow find a way to prevent the Ukrainians from doing this in the first place; rather than waiting for them to do it, and then having to make “difficult decisions” !
Awful Avalanche 
So, if the Ukes destroy the dam, does water level at Ernedogar fall low enough that it’s nuclear power plant’s cooling water supply is cut off? That would cause a meltdown.
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That’s what some people are predicting.
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Well, gee. Reckon the Russians should have forseen all this an surely have take measure to prevent any hostile action. Like rustling up some of their substantial military to drive off any threatening Ukie forces. Because that is easily within their power. Or else what the hell are they good for. This sort of thing is just whining. And normal in combat. Get off yer duffs and whack the buggers. They are over there. You are here. Get on with it.
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I asume that on western Ukrainian territory there are also quite a few dams which could get damaged and cause catastrophic flooding.
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For example the Kiev reservoir – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyiv_Reservoir – I remember going boating there as a child while visiting distant relations – destroying the associated dam would flood the eastern half of Kiev causing massive damage
I doubt that the Russians would do it – destroying dams is now against the Geneva convention and the Russians have followed the GC pretty well so far
Also I do not think that the Ukrop leaders are capable of being deterred by any form of military action – these bastards do not care about the welfare of ordinary Ukrainians , having led thousands to the slaughter so far
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Seems like Ukrops leaders have pledged some kind of suicide cult. Not for themselves, of course, they can always escape at the last minute and find refuge in a Westie country.
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As you say, any threatened response against Ukraine would have no deterrant effect against those crazies.
But all is not lost, there is one way to guarantee that Ukraine would not bomb the dam: threaten the USA. If Russia were to privately inform the USA that in the event of any further attack or attempted attack on the dam, irrespective of success or failure, Russia would then immediately and without further conditions initiate the destruction* of all 170 odd US/NATO/EU military and civilian satellites currently being used to target the Russian military.
*Note: destroy not supress – Russia has the technological capability to do either, but the latter would not have sufficient effect.
This would be an utterly reasonable and proportionate response, in view of the potentially genocidal nature of the dam destruction.
It would not be without one significant disadvantage** though: Russia may well want to do that anyway; by making the link when Russia destroys the satellites the US destroys the dam!
**Some idiots will claim: “But that is an act of war against the US” – that is irrelevant because they are already at war, directly, in every respect; it is just that so far both sides have considered it to their temporary advantage not to admit to the fact (in Russia’s case because they can control escallation which is a major advantage, and in US case because it would give Russia cause to escallate).
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I have seen some discussion in the blogosphere about bringing down American satellites. It sounds great on paper, but some people point out, the space debris might go pinging in all directions and damage one’s own stuff as well; or possibly even plummet to Earth!
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Space is pretty big, you know! There is already lots of space junk orbiting out there, but relative to the size of space it is far less than a needle in a haystack. so the dangers of the debris damaging one’s own stuff are rather slim. That risk is still there, of course, but the risk of it being smashed by an asteroid is probably much larger (just my guess).
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Attacking the dam is essentially admitting that Kiev is very much the loser to date.
It seems that at least till Nov 8 all is about pretending to be winning.
The US would go berserk if this happens. It won’t just yet.
On the other hand after Nov 8 there will be no pressure to “appear winning” most funding will disappear, and most politicians around the world will be preparing their “I was never in favour of my predecessor’s mistakes” mode.
Ukraine will become a terrorist state, where E Ukraine becomes like Idlib and Poland like Turkey.
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Just quickly scanning MSM propaganda this morning, I saw two mutually contradictory talking points: (1) It is Russia who plans to blow the dam, then blame it on innocent Ukes; and (2) Gloating about Ukes success in bombing the dam up to now. (So far Ukes have destroyed the bridge/road that goes over the dam, but not the dam itself; but that appears to be next on the HIMARS menu.)
Oh, and there was a third point which also contradicts (1): Whining about how Russians, by blowing up the dam, will destroy the water supply to … [their own] “occupied” Crimea. I think this contradiction came about because Westie press is forbidden to mention Crimea without adding the sobriquet: “Russian-occupied”. Just like Achilles is always “swift-footed Achilles”, so too Crimea is always “Russian-occupied Crimea”. Other Westie sobriquets (if that is the correct word) include “sham referenda” whenever referring to referenda, etc etc.
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Not forgetting “Russia’s unprovoked attack on the Ukraine”.
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I think you are confusing a stream of consciousness series of complaints about bad Russia/good Ukraine with analysis. 🙂
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My two cents worth. I believe Surovikin is getting this worst case scenario for two reasons:
1) Make clear what kind of creature the RF are ffighting
2) To justify the almost certainly militarily expedient evacuation
In the (IMO) fairly unlikely case that the UAF are able to do their own version of Dambusters, it also helps to mitigate the emergency. I don’t think the North Crimea canal is such a long-term issue, they’d just need to put in a Jesus big lift station and re-block the Dneiper connection. Assuming they can pinch some big ol’ water pumps somewhere, that’s something they can get going pretty quick. Hitting back at the Ukrainian water infrastructure is just descending to their appalling moral level, which no self-respecting country should consider.
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That sounds very plausible, and is pretty much my take on the issue.
Me, I just assume that the Ukrainians intend to blow up the dam and flood the province. For them it would actually be a good military move, and would also deprive Crimea of fresh water (AGAIN), so win-win for them.
I don’t believe the Russian side would ever do such a thing as blow up the dam and reservoir; at least, I hope not; like you say, that would be descending to the other’s level. Plus, they are going to need as much of that Soviet infrastructure as possible, when rebuilding time comes.
I like your opinion that they could still supply Crimea without that dam/reservoir, by rigging something up; but I don’t understand the hydraulics of it. I saw somewhere in the Russian press, that the Soviet engineers who designed that complex, warned the government what could possibly happen, if the dam ever broke, the extensive flooding and loss of life, etc. And the Soviet government listened to their opinions, but then suppressed the publication of them, so as not to panic the population living in that area!
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The US and Canadian governments have begun to assess the availability of blood and blood products in the event of a nuclear war. Source, someone personally known to me, who is highly reliable, and who works in a pharmaceutical company that deals in blood products.
They’re really preparing for WWIII.
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Very scary, but thanks for reporting this. People need to see clearly what might happen, if these death-cult fiends are allowed to continue in power.
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My congratulations to KGB Colonel Maria Elizaveta Trusova on the completion of her mission with outstanding success!
H/t Martyanov
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Oh, I was hoping I could sneak in a graphic there, but not allowed. KGB Major Yalensis, maybe you could tweak it in – or maybe the blog software does not have that capability?
Anyway the graphic is here, or on Martyanov’s blog.
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Haha, that’s funny! Actually, if you see a graphic of the .jpg or .png type, all you have to do is just type out that link in the comment panel, and the graphic should render properly. It didn’t render this particular link, because it’s not a graphic per se.
Anyhow, add my congratulations to Colonel Truss!
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Now that I know how to doit, here’s another test (delete if it failed again):
A real eagle actually screaming.
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It worked! Congratulations! (that’s some scary bird there…)
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P.S. – I think wordpress comment section will render any file with one of these 3 extension: .jpg, .png, or .gif
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Just saw this tweet on Intel Slava:
Discharge of water began from the Kakhovka reservoir. The task is to lower the level and volume of water and minimize damage in the event of the destruction of the hydroelectric power station.
That sounds like a prudent measure. Effecting a controlled “flood” to ease the pressure. So this way, the water will only rise a little bit, as opposed to a tsunami several meters high, if the Ukes are able to blow the dam.
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I saw a suggestion also that one reason for lowering the water level was that it would then be so low the Russian forces could swarm over to the other side on an offensive without even needing pontoon bridges; if that happened to be what the Russians wanted to do.
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Like Moses and his troops crossing the Red Sea?
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