Ukraine War Day #369: Transnistria the next front? [concluded]

Dear Readers:

Thanks for great discussion, in comment section, about this new worrisome crisis. Before finishing my review of Grishin’s piece, I also have this piece from yesterday. RIA reports that Ukrainians troops are observed accumulating ever more on the Transnistria border. Vladimir Rogov, who runs the administration in the Russian segment of Zaporozhie Oblast, is keeping his eye on the situation. Rogov: “According to operative information that is coming in, the Zelensky regime has given the order to move troops to the Transnistria border. We may say, with a high degree of probability, that Zelensky is preparing to attack Transnistria.”

Now, we must keep in mind that Rogov has an axe to grind: He is convinced that the Russian army must expand its Special Operation all the way to Odessa. Which is the only way to prevent the Ukrainians from seizing Transnistria. A glance at the map will show that Rogov is correct.

The flag of Transnistria

As background information, the RIA editors point out that 60% of the civilian inhabitants of Transnistria are ethnic Russians and Ukrainians. Slavs, in other words, as opposed to the other 40% who, I imagine, would mainly be Romanians. There used to be a vital Jewish community in that region, but the Romanians killed them all off (in the most brutal manner possible) in WWII, even before the Nazis arrived to bless their project.

Even before the final break-up of the USSR, the Slavic population of this area did their own Separatist thing and split away from Moldavia. They could see the writing on the wall, they were rightfully afraid of Romanian Nationalists, and they were very worried that Moldavia would be absorbed into Romania. In which case, there would have surely been a bloodbath. At the time it was said (and I don’t know if this is still true, because a lot of civilians have left the area) that Transnistria was the most Soviet of all the Soviet Republics. Even more so than the Donbass. People still keep, and revere, the old Soviet symbols and way of life.

In 1992 the Moldavian government attempted to solve its “Separatist” problem using force, but were unable to take back Transnistria. Which has existed, all these past 30 years as a quasi-independent entity, loyal only to Russia. The garrison of Russian troops which remain there are the heirs of the 14th [Soviet] army, which put itself under the jurisdiction of the Russian Federation. Their main job, as we have seen, is to guard the hoard of weapons.

What Can Russia Do?

With that additional background under our belts, we return to Grishin’s analysis. We saw that he had listed our some rather good reasons why the Ukrainians, from their point of view, should seize Transnistria: (1) They seize the cache, and maybe some of the shells still work; (2) They capture the Russian garrison as POWs; (3) They leverage Moldavia to request assistance from Romania, which, in turns, draws NATO directly in the conflict.

It’s actually a great plan and it might just work, is there anything that Russia can do to thwart this? [aside from calling in the Scooby Gang].

Giant Lenin urges Transnistrians to stand firm.

Grishin: The village of Kolbasna stands right next to the giant arms cache. It is located in the northern part of Transnistria, in the Rybnitsky Region. The Ukrainian border is nearby: Just one kilometer to the North, and a kilometer and a half to the East. This distance is nothing, were the Ukrainians to launch a sudden and massive attack. All the more so, as this particular area is flat, and there are no natural barriers to the East. There is a natural barrier to the West, namely the Dniester River itself. The Dniester is the natural border between Transnistria and Moldavia proper.

Estimates of the number of Russian troops, varies. From 2,000 to 5,000 bayonets. Probably closer to the former. But add to them something like 15,000 Transnistrian soldiers, in the Transnistrian army itself. [yalensis: I didn’t know that, I thought there was only the Russian garrison!] People also say that, in the event of an attack, the Transnistrian army can very quickly balloon up to 80,000 men. But this assertion has never had to be actually tested before, thank God, because it was never an issue. Also take into account that Transnistrian military strategy and training has always been focused on the threat from the West, from Moldavia. It did not take into account an incursion from the East, from Ukraine.

Russia can respond to an attack using its economic leverage. For example, it could completely shut off the pipeline that still carries gas across Ukraine to Europe. It can block all ships that are in the Black Sea, as part of the grain deal. But those measures would take days, if not weeks, to implement. Whereas the fate of Transnistria could be decided in just a couple of hours.

A maritime or airborne landing [of Russian troops] is not possible. The planes will be shot down, the ships will be sunk. Given this, Russia has only one variant: rocket strikes. And not just precision “Kalibr” strikes, something more weighty is needed. While at the same time trying to carve that corridor to Odessa. Which would also take time, and is fraught with risk of numerous losses.

In conclusion, the best variant is to issue an ultimatum to Kiev: In the case of aggression, to punish with precision strikes and “wipe off the face of the planet” the decision-making centers in Kiev. The administrative offices and government buildings, the entire block on Bankovaya Street, the Ministry of Defense, the SBU HQ on Vladimirskaya Street (where, by the way, the CIA Residentura resides), and so on.

Well, we shall just have to see what happens.