Ukraine War Day #291: Will Poland Take Lvov?

Dear Readers:

There has been a lot of idle chatter about Poland slicing up Western Ukraine for its own needs. I tend to take it all with a pound of salt, assuming this is mostly trolling designed to scare the pants off the Ukrainians Nationalists!

However, it does seem that moves in that direction might actually be real, and not just hype. For example, I have this piece by reporter Vasily Stoyakin. His headline reads:

Poland’s Plan To Return Lvov Has Received Some New Confirmation

The lede paragraph: The idea of conducting a referendum in Western Ukraine has been formulated as a petition to the government. The question on the referendum would be the issue of absorbing these regions into Poland. Other details have emerged regarding this alleged plebiscite, and even of the training Polish cadres to govern Galicia. But, in this endeavor, Warsaw faces two serious obstacles: the positions of Moscow and Washington.

There is an online platform called Change.org where petitions are published. On 6 December, a petition was published appealing to Polish President Andrzej Duda to “conduct a referendum as soon as possible, regarding the reunification with historically Polish territories such as Eastern Kresy, Galicia, and Lvov. Poles, who are suffering at the hands of the barbaric Ukrainians, want this historical problem to be resolved.”

The initiator of the petition is a Polish political party called Obóz Narodowo-Radykalny (Nationalist Radical Camp), led by Jan Mosdorf. Their symbol is this green falangist thing, shown here. (Arm holding sword, but pointed strangely towards one’s own face.) Founded in 1934, this party was rather sympathetic to Hitler. Currently it stands on principles of Polish Nationalism and Catholic Clericalism. Their slogan is “Poland for Poles“.

The reporter warns that the petition itself should not be taken seriously, especially since, in the course of 2 days, it only gathered 15 signatures. However, this initiative is just one manifestation of deeper currents rustling behind the scenes. After the start of the Special Military Operation, some Poles started thinking seriously about the opportunity to regain territories that they used to own during the years 1921-39, but subsequently were forced (Thanks, Uncle Joe!) to hand over to Ukraine.

Already back last March, Sergei Lavrov warned that the act of bringing Polish peacekeepers into the Ukraine might lead to some unexpected (for the Ukrainian side) consequences. Polish public opinion (57%) supports the introduction of NATO and/or Polish troops into Western Ukraine. Towards the end of spring rumors started to circulate about referendums in Galicia and Volhynia. However, at the beginning of May the Poles were told, sternly, by their parents, that neither NATO nor the U.S. would support such initiatives. And the Poles were forced to curb their enthusiasm somewhat.

Zelensky and Duda

However, Poles are nothing if not sneaky. Measures for two-sided relations (Poland-Ukraine, without NATO involvement) have already been set into motion. Recall that on May 22 Duda met with Zelensky in Kiev; and the two men agreed that Poles should have equal rights as Ukrainians on Ukrainian soil. Up to and including the right to serve in Ukrainian governmental organs. This was maybe the “first swallow of spring”, as Russians say. Polish investigators were also granted the right to conduct criminal investigations on Ukrainian territory. There was even talk of a “Union” between the two nations; but that kind of crazy talk was quickly squelched by their American overlords.

This past October several reports emerged, of the Polish ruling party wishing “to resurrect the Rzeczpospolita“, the historical Polish Commonwealth, within its historical boundaries. And that would be quite a lot, just check out this map, to see how much land the Poles would like to gobble up:

All of the red-colored area used to be the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, at it maximum extent.

On the last day this past November, none other than Sergei Naryshkin, of Russian Foreign Intelligence, announced that Warsaw is planning to annex Lvov, Ivano-Frankovsk, and the major part of the Ternopol Oblast of Ukraine. Naryshkin claims that Duda already gave the order to start preparations for this massive project.

In addition, the reporter states that his sources in Western Ukrainian Oblasts confirm that preparations for a referendum truly are taking place, so this isn’t a hoax. People estimate that the referendums (each in a different region) are scheduled for the spring of 2023.

As far as Galicia is concerned, the referendum may include extra questions such as the following:

• Reunification with Poland
• Relationship with EU and NATO
• Attitude about Stepan Bandera and the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UIA, or UPA in Russian)

Which might indicate, actually, more like an opinion poll than an actual referendum. The Bandera question might go something like, On a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 meaning “I don’t like him at all,” and 5 meaning, “I am rather besotted with him…”

Moreoever, in Poland itself, allegedly cadres are being prepared for the various government posts in the new territories. Some of these cadres are already working in place, as “advisors” to the Ukrainian government.

Possible problem: Russia cannot possibly approve of such an enterprise, and would try to stop this from happening, if it can.