Ukraine War Day #815: What Kind Of Buffer Zone?

Dear Readers:

There has been a lot of excited chatter in the pro-Russian public about the Russian army possibly taking Kharkov. In yesterday’s post we heard from an “underground” woman in the area, how many Kharkov residents are hunkering down and waiting for the Russian army to liberate them.

Well, they may have a bit of a wait, and they sure better keep their mouths shut if they don’t want to be punished by the Ukrainians. Just yesterday or the day before, during his visit to China, as if to dash cold water on all of this, President Putin announced that he had no intention of taking Kharkov; that all Russia wanted was a buffer zone sufficient to protect Belgorod and other Russian cities on the border, from Ukrainian shelling.

As if in lockstep, Russian mainstream media followed suit with the new talking point; for example I have this piece by reporters Alyona Zadorozhnaya and Evgeny Pozdnyakov. The title is:

What Kind Of Buffer Zone Does Russia Need In Kharkov Oblast?

Technically, the term is Cordon sanitaire (Russian sanitarnyi koridor), which originally meant a medical quarantine zone (like, in times of plague), but later came to have a military meaning as well. Russian experts are already busy debating what must be the measurements of this new quarantine buffer that they are building.

It basically means, taping off a disaster area.

Experts warn that the creation of a buffer zone can never fully 100% guarantee the safety of Belgorod. The goal is to minimize the damage of the shelling, by putting the Russian city out of range of short-range artillery. But the Russian buffer zone must include the towns of Volchansk, Liptsy and Velikiy Burluk. The radius of the buffer should be from 25-40 kilometers.

Military correspondent Fyodor Gromov comments: “Let’s say we move the border back by 20 km, this will protect Belgorod from attack by FPV drones, light artillery, and grenade launchers. But it’s much harder to protect Belgorod from 155 mm installations: And certain Western models can reach up to 40 km. One needs to do the math and take all of this into account.”

Gromov continues: “One should also not exclude the factor of Ukrainian aviation, and their use of HIMARS. In other words, to protect Belgorod from the majority of types of weapons and installations they are using, then rightfully the front should be moved back 60 and perhaps even up to 80 km. While at the same time, beefing up our air defenses.

“I should add that we definitely need Liptsy. From there we can stage our own attacks upon military objects in Kharkov. By doing so, we deprive the Ukrainians of using the center and North of Kharkov as their logistical hub.

“By the same token, we need to take Veliky Burluk, which is located right in the middle between Volchansk and Kupyansk. From there we can exert pressure on Kupyansk. The Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) maintain a large grouping on the other side of the Oskol River, but we can make this area very uncomfortable for them. They would have to do some maneuvering and pull back somewhat, otherwise this grouping runs the risk of being cut off.”

Alexander Syrsky

Even the Ukrainians are admitting this. This past Friday, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Alexander Syrsky, described how the Russians are pushing through with the intention of cutting off the rear of his own troops.

For the time being, military correspondent Alexei Leonkov thinks, the 40 km buffer zone should be adequate: “The borders of the buffer zone that is forming, could be Liptsy and Volchansk, but we should not exclude the possibility that our leadership is thinking about something broader than that. In the meantime, while carrying out this operation, we have to think, in parallel, about the evacuation of the local residents. Once the buffer zone has been established, the UAF will most likely start to shell whatever civilians remain inside the zone. Therefore, these civilians need to be evacuated to bordering regions of Russia,” Leonkov concludes.