Ukraine War Day #455: Belgorod Crisis, Situation Critical But Not Serious

Dear Readers:

Some of you may have heard about the Ukrainian incursion into Russia, into the Grayvoron Region of the Belgorod Oblast. The attack happened on Monday May 22, around 14:20 in the afternoon, and may have involved up to 100 or more Ukrainian soldiers, along with armored vehicles. We will see below that many of the diversionaries are reported as killed, but some individual terrorists may still be hiding in the woods around the area. As of yesterday though (Tuesday, May 23), Russian press declared the crisis to be over. The State of Emergency was lifted, and residents were allowed back into their homes.

Military experts agree that, from a strategic point of view, the attack was meaningless and will have no effect on the course of the war. (A cynic might even figure that such cross-border raids are beneficial to the Russian cause: The more soldiers the Ukrainians throw into such divertissements, the fewer they have for their real offensives, like attacking Zaporozhie or something like that.) However, from a psychological point of view, such attacks are meant to shock and terrorize the Russian people. The Russian blogosphere came to the conclusion (with which I concur) that the whole thing was just a PR stunt meant to remove “Bakhmut falls” headlines from Westie media, and replace them with headlines about valiant “Russian” anti-Putin Resistance fighters taking over an entire province in a single day. (The talking point was picked up eagerly by pro-Ukr trolls, all over the blogosphere, who kept repeating over and over: “It took the Russians 9 months to capture a small meaningless city, but the Ukrainians captured an entire province in just a few hours – rah rah for our side!”)

By The Hammer Of Thor!

Russian bloggers reported that the invading soldiers (estimates range from 70-130) carried the blue-white flag of the WWII Vlasovites (those Russian units who fought for Hitler), and that their vehicles carried a strange insignia known as Thor’s Rune. Thor being a member of the Norse-God pantheon; and his Rune signifying his battle against the Wolf Demon, Fenris. Allegedly Thor lost one arm in the battle, but was later compensated by receiving a cool super-weapon in the shape of a hammer. The members of the so-called “Russian Liberation Army” are known for being literary scholars and adepts of the ancient mythologies.

To help explain what really happened, and what it means, I have a couple of pieces from the Russian mainstream press. First this one by reporter Darya Volkova.

Who speaks with a man named Alexei Filatov, who is the President of a soldiers organization called “Alfa”. Filatov: “The situation is complicated by the Landschaft. The forests allow the enemy to hide, so that it may take a long time to catch them all. And our task is not just to destroy the diversionaries, but to do it without taking on losses to our own side.

Alexei Filatov

“It is obvious that we can’t throw all our resources into the Belgorod Oblast, that would leave other areas on our border vulnerable to enemy incursion. Which is probably exactly what they were counting on. This diversion doesn’t have real military or political goals, but mainly morale and psychological goals.”

Filatov noted that the terrorist group appeared to be well-trained and equipped. They had mortar launchers and artillery. They shot up both administrative and residential areas and attacked critical infrastructure such as electricity. During the crisis, the lights went out for a period of time.

In addition, as reporter Alexei Degtyarev reports, the terrorists most likely enjoyed NATO satellite assistance. Two days before the attack (May 20), the American satellite GeoEye-1 snapped a bunch of photos from around the Belgorod area and posted them on the Maxar site.

A few hours after the initial attack, the Belgorod authorities put into action their Emergency Preparedness Plan. They declared a state of emergency and evacuated civilians from the following towns: Grayvoron, Novostroevka, Gorkovsky, Bezymeno, Mokraya Orlovka, Glotovo, Gora-Podol, Zamostie, and Spodariushino. Temporary shelters for the civilians were set up in Stary Oskol, and in the Yakovlevsky and Ivnyansky Okrugs.

Emergency measures also included shutting down any businesses or enterprises where chemicals, biologicals, radioactive materials, or explosives might be stored; and setting up checkpoints to verify people’s documents.

The Governor of the Region is a man named Vyacheslav Gladkov. During the course of the crisis he kept his residents informed of the course of events. Eventually the Ukrainian attack was repelled by units of the Russian Army, Border Guards, the National Guard, and the FSB.

On Tuesday morning the anti-terrorist operation continued, and residents were asked to not return to their homes just yet. But later that day, as mentioned above, the State of Emergency was lifted. The Russian authorities claimed they had killed about half of the terrorists in the company and chased the rest of them back across the Ukrainian border.

Numbers And Casualties

On Tuesday, some numbers started coming in. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that 70 terrorists had been liquidated, along with 4 armored vehicles and 5 pickup trucks. [yalensis: Alas, they are still using the American word “pickup” (пикап), I thought the Academy of Sciences told the reporters to stop using so many American words!]

When the incursion first started, the Ukrainian militants opened a massive machine-gun and artillery fire through the Belgorod Oblast, including such Okrugs as Grayvoron, Shebekinsky, Valuisky, and Belgorod.

Russian soldiers hunt for the intruders.

A Ukrainian drone was shot down in Nikolsky.

Fourteen artillery shells were launched at the town of Zhuralevka. No casualties and no real damage.

A mortar shell was launched at the tiny village of Lozavaya Rudka. No casualties and no real damage.

Five mortars launched at the village of Stary Khutor. No casualties and no real damage.

[yalensis: You see what I mean? The Ukrainians were just wasting their precious ammo on these meaningless targets.]

In another, unnamed place, two bombs were tossed out of a drone. There were no casualties, but a private homeowner had to stand there and watch his roof cave in.

Grayvoron took the worse hit, and the saddest result were some civilian casualties. The Ukrainians really let loose on this unfortunate region with everything they had: Grenade launchers, artillery, rockets; and also grenades launched from drones. Twenty-nine residential homes were damaged, along with 3 automobiles. Twelve peaceful civilians were wounded.

Electricity was damaged, and the lights went off in 14 towns. The authorities had to hold back and not allow the repair work to start until the crisis had been resolved.

The Situation In Shebekino

This urban center suffered quite a lot: It was shelled 25 times.

The town of Terezovka received 8 mortar shells. There were no casualties or damage.

The Ukrainians worked their artillery against Novaya Tavolzhanka. There were no casualties, but a couple of homes saw damaged fences. Here too, a bomb was tossed out of a drone.

The village of Sereda received 10 shells; and 3 houses lost their facades.

Vyacheslav Gladkov

The most serious human casualties occurred in the town of Glotovo. According to Governor Gladkov: “A married couple were injured. The woman incurred shrapnel wounds to her legs, and went in to traumatic shock. She is in serious condition. The man received wounds around his abdomen and chest, and is in moderately serious condition. They were taken to Hospital #2. Currently they are both under observation by the doctors. All the necessary care is being given to them.”

The only known death attributed to the terrorist raid was that of an elderly woman (born in 1941) who died in the process of being evacuated from her home. She was riding in a bus at the time, along with her son and her daughter-in-law. Officials are investigating the causes of her death.

And thus ends the mini-saga of Thor’s Rune, and nobody is talking about the victory of Bakhmut any more. Well played, Mr. Zelensky!