Ukraine War Day #385: Ukrainian Copium For Xi Visit

Dear Readers:

If I were a NATO loyalist (can’t imagine that, but try to pretend) I think I would have noticed the signs and portents, going way back, of a historical shift in Russia-Chinese relations. With collaboration evolving almost to the level of an actual alliance against NATO. I think I would have tried to sound the alarm to my NATO bosses: “Please try to be nice to China! We can’t afford to have 2 major enemies all at once!”

Instead the imperialist analysts seem to have been living in a world of slumber and fantasy. They blinked and missed the whole China-Russia alliance thing. If they really wanted to destroy Russia, then they needed to keep China neutral. Let the Chinese look on with impotent concern as the imperialists rip Russia to shreds and create 30 NATO Princedoms out of the former Empire. Instead of antagonizing China and driving it into Russia’s court. Well, what can I say? Those imperialist “thinkers” are pretty dumb. Or maybe they just lack basic people skills. Even a five-year-old on the playground knows that if you want to defeat Billy, then you need to entice Bobby onto your side. Instead of trying to take both of them on at the same time.

Xi Jinping’s upcoming visit to Moscow raises many expectations.

Ukrainian Nationalists are also (and especially) known for their coping skills and resorts to simple fantasy. If they see something happening that they don’t like, they simply close their eyes and try to wish it away.

All of this in the way of introduction to this interesting op-ed written by Petr Akopov on the theme of Xi Jinping’s upcoming visit (possibly next week) to Moscow. Akopov is what you might call a “conservative” patriotic Russian commentator. The gist of his argument is that the alliance between Russia and Chinese is a completely serious one, based on the existence of a common enemy; and that the Ukrainians are fooling themselves if they really believe they are powerful enough to drive a wedge between these two great nations.

Akopov: Even the Americans are showing great interest in the upcoming meeting in Moscow. For many years the American propaganda machine kept playing the same old record over and over: “They are getting closer, to be sure, but the potential differences are still so great that a strategic alliance between these two states is impossible. Sooner or later they will quarrel. And thus America can always remain a divisive factor in this triangle Washington-Moscow-Beijing.”

Political pundit Petr Akopov

But recently even the propagandists themselves started to realize that this old playbook is too worn out. But they still attempt to give it new life with the Ukrainian theme. For example, the Wall Street Journal consoles itself with the news that, immediately after meeting with Putin, Xi will meet with Zelensky. (Downplaying that the meeting will probably be via Zoom and not in person, as with Putin.) In the minds of the WSJ editors, this ascribes an equality in importance between Putin and Zelensky, the leaders of the two states; it also indicates that Xi may try to act as peacemaker between them. If Beijing were able to broker a peace (like it recently did between Iran and Saudi Arabia), then this will raise its status in the world as a diplomatic broker, the WSJ notes hopefully. They hope is that Xi will pressure Putin to make concessions to Ukraine, in order to craft a peace deal.

One still hears the old rubrics, especially coming from the Russian Liberal intelligentsia, and even from some ultra-patriotic circles: “The Chinese can never be our allies or partners. All they want to do is use this conflict to rope in a weakened Russia. They will be able to dictate their terms, and the result will be a repeat of the Golden Horde and the Mongol yoke.” Sinophobia is alive and well in post-Soviet Russia. The majority of the Russian people are patriotic, so the goal of the Sinophobes is to recruit them into the anti-Chinese position. By any means necessary, including fake news. They want ordinary Russians to believe that the Chinese will stab them in the back.

Such gambits are understandable, given the sheer geopolitical significance of the China-Russia alliance. In order to preserve and cultivate this alliance, it is necessary for the two parties to employ objectivity, to get to know each other very well, and to rely on their own analyses of global processes taking place. If they are able to maintain this alliance and stick together, then literally nothing can stop them. There are no limits to what they can accomplish together.

Each side must respect the other’s interests.

This is where the Ukrainian Leitmotif comes in. Unfortunately for the Ukrainians, China’s purposes are served (objectively) by the strengthening (not weakening) of their neighbor, Russia. China understands this, which is why Ukraine has no objective meaning for the Chinese. The Chinese elites understand that the Ukrainian elite are simple marionettes of the West; and they see Ukraine mostly as a Russian internal problem.

Which is another reason why China cannot really be an impartial mediator in this conflict, since the two sides are Russia vs the Anglo-Saxons. And those same Anglo-Saxons demonize the Chinese, just like they demonize the Russians, only not quite as strongly, just yet. But that day is coming.

To be sure, China has proposed its own peace plan for the Ukraine conflict. But this is just a way of raising its own stature in the world, as a force for international diplomacy. The Chinese understand that they are next on the Anglo-Saxon hitlist, but they would like to buy some time before that conflict gets really hot.

In conclusion: Whatever online conversation should take place between Xi and Zelensky, will not change anything neither in China’s tactics, nor strategy in regard to the Ukrainian issue. China understands that the Russians regard Ukraine as an “internal” matter, and Xi will not do or say anything that the Russians could interpret as a double-cross. These two seasoned leaders, Xi and Putin, have been playing this chess game for a very long time. They understand every single thing about their own relationship, and also have a deep knowledge of their common enemy.

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