Ukraine War Day #142: Poland To The Rescue!

Dear Readers:

Generalissimo Zelensky has a dilemma: On the one hand, he has ordered his army to retake the South (meaning Kherson and Zaporozhie) back from the Russians. On the other hand, he has far too many troops tied up in the Western part of the country (Lvov and other oblasts). They are there as the final defense, should the Russians break through all lines and cross the Dnepr River.

Rostislav Ishchenko

What to do? What to do? I have this story, the reporter is Anton Nikitin. The lede paragraph: Vladimir Zelensky, in negotiations with Polish President Andrzej Duda, has agreed to give citizens of Poland a “special status” in the Ukraine, in return for Poland moving its troops into the Western part of the country; this according to Rostislav Ishchenko, The latter, born and bred in Kiev, the Mother of all Russian cities, is a former Ukrainian diplomat. He served in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and in many other other posts in Independent Ukraine between 1992 right up through around 2010. After the 2014 coup Ishchenko emigrated to Russia, where he works as a publicist and political analyst. Now at 56 years old, he still possesses a full head of hair and an analytical brain. According to Ishchenko, Zelensky’s agreement with Poland formally enshrines the status of the Ukraine as a protectorate of Poland. Technically, the treaty has not yet been signed by the Rada, but he expects it to be ratified shortly: “In exchange, Kiev (with London’s and Washington’s approval) counts on seeing 20,000 Polish troops in the West of Ukraine. Zelensky needs this to happen so that he can move around 30,000 regular troops and an additional 20-30,000 Territorial Defense troops, currently all deployed in the Western Oblasts, to the Eastern Front.”

Duda: “This land is your land, this land is my land…” ♫ ♫

In other words, this would be a very good exchange for the Ukraine, if 20K Polish troops can free up over 50K Ukrainians. The Polish troops would have the softer job in the West, while the Ukrainians can head into the meat grinder on the Eastern Front.

The bad news, according to Ishchenko, is that Poles will hardly limit themselves to, say, quartermaster duties. He suspects that the Poles have their own hidden agenda, namely to occupy as much of the Ukrainian West as they can. Russians have been warning for months that the Poles have their eye on re-taking their “historical” provinces such as Lvov, Galicia and Volhynia. Some people dismiss these warnings as just scaremongering tactics, employed to scare Ukrainians and drive them apart from their dear Polish friends. To some extent that might be true, just like Westies try to scare Russians with predictions of the Chinese seizing parts of Russian Siberia.

On the other hand, given the recent Duda-Zelensky agreement; and given just how badly the Ukraine is losing this war and can barely hang on by its fingernails — there may actually be some there, there. In other words, the long-predicted partition of the Ukraine may actually be starting, right under our eyes.

In the next segment of this saga, we need to talk about possible impediments to this otherwise perfect union between Poland and the Ukraine. For that, I have this story by reporters Rafael Fakhrutdinov and Mikhail Moshkin. It will have to wait until tomorrow, but I shall give you a hint: the bone of contention between these two great nations starts with the letter “B” is for Bandera.

[to be continued]

Advertisement
This entry was posted in Friendship of Peoples, Military and War, Russian History and tagged . Bookmark the permalink.

14 Responses to Ukraine War Day #142: Poland To The Rescue!

  1. michaeldroy says:

    I doubt Poland has more than 20,000 fighting forces as opposed to just numbers. It seems that the ruling PiS announce an increase from 100k military to 200k once every 5 years, but it doesn’t happen (though I found it hard to get reliable figures).

    There are other parties to this.
    Will Russia treat Polish soldiers as proper soldiers or as Mercs? (maybe that doesn’t matter if they stay behind the Dnieper and don’t fire missiles – see below)
    Will Nato expel Poland? Essentially Poland is entering a non-Nato war, why would Nato continue to offer them protection?

    Finally what will rump Ukraine be? That is easy. It will be as small as it needs to be to get a responsible government that Russia can trust not to kill civilians anymore. Until there is such a government there is no negotiations. If Ukraine keeps shelling civilians from deeper and deeper than means Russia has no choice but to take more and more land.
    Good walls might make good neighbours, but bad neighbours can’t have walls.

    Like

  2. nicolaavery says:

    And B for Belarus ?

    Like

  3. Reg says:

    Look at what Turkey is doing in northern Syria and you have your answer. Poland will use the same tactic: take a territory directly or via proxies, then transform it into a Polish province.

    Like

  4. moon says:

    For that, I have this story Good heavfens finally Mr. Melnyk finally is gone. I scanned an interview he gave in the Ukraine a while ago via Google translate, if I recall correcty. In this interview he claimed the first thing he did when he arrived here in Germany 6 years ago was built up a media-connection-database, and that he then gave 1.000 interviews. That means about 143 interviews a year, and about 12 each week.

    Was he able to do anything else? Ok, maybe have of those interviews happened since the end of February.

    Like

  5. Lex says:

    I think Putin would let Poland have those oblasts. Pre-1939 borders more or less and it leaves the most ideologically problematic areas to be someone else’s problem. Poland managing the western oblasts wouldn’t turn out any better than the past time with the Banderites almost certainly rekindling their old hatreds. It leaves NATO close but NATO is punch drunk. It would be a fine excuse to really go after everything east of the Dnieper and get Odessa. The least economically viable portion of the country can be a basket case in the EU and NATO’s lap. Without Odessa the US/UK will lose interest completely and Poland’s zany scheme for the Intermarium will be dashed. I’m not so sure Hungary and Romania wouldn’t demand their slices too. And now you have the EU dismembering nations. I’m sure that will help fraternal relations.

    It’s absolutely disastrous and stupid from every perspective except Russia’s. Either Poland lets Ukrainians put into the EU in a fairly uncontrolled manner (which is probably not the best idea right now) or it forces them to stay. Does it enforce conscription on behalf of the AFU? I’m sure the average Ukrainian from the West will love the idea of “making it into the EU” only to be held in place or maybe get to pick polish strawberries. How long until the worst Ukrainians decide they’ve been shafted by the EU, Poland and NATO? And they’ve got shoulder fired missiles. Who’s going to pay for western Ukraine? If the poles got a US/UK promise and believe it, they’re fools. If the Poles think NATO will back them up with reinforcements, they’re fools.

    In other words, this is probably the big late summer block buster of incompetence from the US/UK. Is this the grand plan to protect Odessa for a NATO base? Are there really 50K fighters that can be used and if so, why aren’t they there already? Nobody’s marching on Lvov.

    Like

  6. S Brennan says:

    “in order to save Ukrainia, we had to dismember her…God…I love the smell of napalm in the morning”

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s