Ukraine War Day #118: Why Did Ukies Bomb Oil Rig?

Dear Readers:

The big war news yesterday (Monday) was the Ukrainian bombing of an offshore oil drilling platform, owned by the company Chernomor-Nefte-Gaz (“Black Sea Oil-Gas”). The platform is one of three located in the middle of the Black Sea, just 71 kilometers from Odessa. The attack happened around 8:00 AM (Moscow time?) In the fog of war, it seems like Ukrainian rockets attacked all three platforms simultaneously, but only one was actually struck, and damaged. It seems like all three rigs have been evacuated, however, and now soldiers are guarding the two undamaged ones, while firefighters battle the blaze on the damaged one.

Offshore platform owned by Chernomor-Nefte-Gaz company

According to the latest: Ninety-four oil workers have been evacuated from the rigs; of which three were injured. Sadly, seven workers have disappeared without a trace and are still unaccounted for. Rescue efforts continue as boats scan the waters, and hope has not been given up yet.

Meanwhile, firefighters are still struggling with the blaze. According to Olga Kovitidi, a Senator from Crimea: “The fire on the platform rages on. They tried to approach it by ship, but did not succeed. Efforts to put out the fire continue.”

Next we turn to this more analytical piece, to try to figure out why the Ukrainians did this. The reporters are Rafael Fakhrutdinov and Alyona Zadorozhnaya.

For starters, this damaged oil platform is the property of the Russian Federation. No doubt it can be repaired. But even in worst case scenario; if it could not be repaired, the economic loss to Russia would only be a tiny dent. Thus, it is not a catastrophic type situation, in the economic sense, although the risk of ecological damage to the Black Sea is significant. The question is, why would Ukraine undertake such a risky operation? Knowing that (a) they could damage the entire Sea, and (b) there is bound to be a retaliation from the Russian side.

Another important question is why the platform was not better guarded. This could be an issue of simple negligence, what Russians call khalatnost, after the word for a robe, khalat. As in, walking around in your robe and not planning for all the possible risks. After the fact, soldiers (presumably from the Crimean garrison) have been posted to guard the offshore platforms. Also in reactive mode, the Russian Prosecutor General has opened a criminal investigation against whichever Ukrainian officials shall have been proved to have been responsible for issuing this order to attack the platforms. Presumably, when the war is over, such officials will be arrested and charged with terrorism.

Viktor Vodolatsky

State Duma Deputy Viktor Vodolatsky believes that the strike was implemented using British or American rockets.

Sergei Khatylev

A better question is raised by Sergei Khatylev, whom we met in a previous post, when we were discussing the defense of the Crimea Bridge. Khatylev is a former commander of Russian rocket forces: “This oil field is under the umbrella of the medium and long-range Anti-Air complexes, and also the Black Sea fleet. At larger distances the platforms are protected by air destroyers. In other words, why did this attack succeed? Judging by everything, although nobody is talking about this, it seems that the Western nations have succeeded in creating some kind of shielding technology, not to mention reconnaissance and perhaps deflecting maneuvers.”

Alexander Bartosh

Khatylev’s theory is supported by info that has emerged, namely: Just a week before the strike, American commercial satellites were snapping photos of this area of the Black Sea that contains the Chernomor-Nefte-Gaz oil platforms. Three satellites named Worldview-1, Worldview-2 and Worldview-3 snapped photos of the rigs on 11, 13 and 14 June, respectively. Military expert Alexander Bartosh believes that the Americans put the Ukrainians up to the attack. He doesn’t think the Ukrainians would have had the cojones to think this up or do it by themselves, without being egged on from the American side. For his part, Khatylev thinks he knows what the Americans are up to and what their game is: He believes that this attack was designed to force Russian Black Sea ships to patrol closer to the shore. All the better to pick them off with Ukrainian Harpoon missiles. But, in this chess game, Khatylev believes he knows the next move: “In order to protect the oil platforms, it is enough to conduct a technical-organizational regrouping of the existing forces. [In other words, not necessary to move the ships closer.] For example, using the forces on Snake Island. That’s where we have our radar and rocket complexes. It is plausible that the Russian Defense Ministry will decide to strengthen the aviation grouping in this area.”

In other words, everything always comes back to Snake Island.

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18 Responses to Ukraine War Day #118: Why Did Ukies Bomb Oil Rig?

  1. yalensis says:

    FIRST! comment to my own piece. Roughly a week ago I masochistically tortured myself by scanning American MSM for Ukraine news. Just to see what is the latest propaganda meme. I think it was MSNBC piece, and wouldn’t you know it, the sock-puppet fake analyst (some retired general) was yammering on about Snake Island, and how that was the next front in the war. And I was, like, “You still on about Snake Island? Get over it, bro.” Well, maybe he knew something, or he was told something. I mean, all these guys, both “analysts” and reporters, all work for the CIA, no? But the moral of the story is: Never let your eyes off Snake Island.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. colliemum says:

    Thank you, yalensis, especially for giving us the thoughts of Russian military experts. There’s one more point which might illustrate why this attack took place yesterday, in view of the remarks about US help with this attack.
    It could be meant as yet another attempt by the USA to provoke Russia into some military retaliation which would divert their power from the embattled Donbas region. There are attempts in Syria taking place which has USA fingerprints all over it. And there’s the Lithuanian blocking of Russian wares entering the Kaliningrad enclave by rail, allegedly with ‘permission’ by the EU which, as we all know by now, is doing as told by Washington.
    And so ‘The West’ and their MSM minions don’t have to ‘report’ about what is taking place in the Ukraine right now, they can warble about ‘moar war’ here and there. I’m just waiting for some Green acolyte (hello, Greta – you’ve been very quiet?) to blame Russia for polluting the Black Sea with those platforms and that the cute Ukraine was simply stopping this pollution by attacking that platform …

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    • yalensis says:

      Yup, I think all these things are interconnected, Syria, Kaliningrad, etc. Westies are, like, “Keep poking the bear from all sides,” while bear is spinning around playing whacka-mole!

      Like

  3. Liborio Guaso says:

    In a war with no hope of victory, all that remains is to provoke the enemy, seeking to complicate his life a little more every day. The trick is to ensure that the torrent of dollars-euros that must be enriching a few “democratic patriots” does not stop.

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  4. michaeldroy says:

    I think your pieces are still discussing a 2 sided war where both sides are thinking logically.
    That stopped months ago.
    This is rather desperate measures to imply Ukraine is still in the game.
    Whatever Russia is short of it is not Oil or gas. There is no military gain from this target at all. (And lots of useful info for Russia to learn from).
    Surely with US help there must be better military targets Ukraine can aim at.
    Or rather this indicates just how poor Ukraine intelligence actually is.

    Russia takes out 50 officers then Ukraine takes out 7 oil rig workers (and dozens more civilians a week like the strike on the Donestk maternity hospital last week).

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    • yalensis says:

      That’s interesting that you mentioned “useful info for Russia”, because I was hearing some bloggers say the Russians could learn something by calibrating the flight paths of the rockets that hit the oil rig. There is also the issue, mentioned in the article I reviewed, how these (American?) rockets evaded Russian radar. So maybe there is something to be learned there as well, unless it was just simply a screw-up (due to Russian negligence). But one can learn from screw-ups as well.

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  5. S Brennan says:

    So, with this data point, my argument the other day that US made missiles can make it through, when properly managed by US personal. As once was said in the movie Bladerunner, “response time is a factor”.

    But…since we know that this was a US attack on Russian oil facilities, [with the old plausible deniability clause], does that mean that US owned facilities are now legitimate targets, [with the old plausible deniability clause]? Hmmm, I wonder who loses if that is the case?

    Once again, we in the USA are ruled by children, they may be “children of the corn” but still, they’re not capable of understanding the ramifications of “instant gratification”.

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  6. the pair says:

    can’t help but think of this:

    https://www.wionews.com/world/gaza-rocket-attack-israeli-energy-pipeline-hit-as-iron-dome-fails-to-intercept-missile-384683

    it even has the target in common. the russians will figure it out but it may just come down to “you can’t block them all”. see also: trump’s childish attack on syria where most rockets were intercepted (by older S300s i think) but several made it through. it also depends on how the missiles/rockets are launched. S400s are great but don’t help much with torpedoes (i’m guessing).

    maybe kiev’s langley/DC handlers thought gas prices weren’t high enough so they wanted to knock out more supplies.

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    • yalensis says:

      Yup. Some people were saying how Donetsk needs an Iron Dome to protect it. But, like you say, you can’t block ’em all, no matter how hard you try.
      Philosophically, I reckon it’s question of doing the best you can, and trying to block MOST of ’em.

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  7. Bob says:

    I think it’s more likely that the Ukironazis are just desperate for some type of “victory”, even if it is against a defenseless oil rig and its operators. This is the level of delusion we are dealing with here – in their world the destruction of a piece of relatively minor infrastructure (this will have zero impact on Russian oil production) can be leveraged into a “See, we’ve hit the invaders! Yay, us!”.

    Even if it is a ploy to lure Russian vessels within range of Harpoons, you’re talking about an anti-shipping missile developed 45 years ago that moves at subsonic speeds and whose launch would be detected immediately by Russian ISR assets (assuming the rockets and launchers even make it to a launch point, lol). And besides, the Banderites and their masters in the US/UK know full well that if they were to get lucky and hit a Russian vessel with a Harpoon, there would be retaliation against them and their assets abroad. The US military in Syria might get another flight of Kalibers, but this time, there would be no friendly warning to avoid loss of personnel and decision making centers in Kiev and Lviv might get Kalibrated, as well. I don’t think they’d risk it, but we are witnessing Peak Clown Empire, so anything is possible, I suppose.

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    • yalensis says:

      Sounds like a plausible analysis. I always like to look for a logical reason for things happening (that’s the Vulcan in me!) and forget sometimes that certain people operate out of pure emotion. Ukrainian Nationalists being a good example of the latter.

      One has to keep in mind also that the Ukrainian side spent 8 long years building up this huge army and accumulating all this equipment, and training to NATO standards; and then they basically lost it all in the first couple of months. Lost their army, lost their equipment, got so paralyzed they were unable to act and just left reacting to the initiatives of the other side. While the other side was quickly evolving and adapting, making mistakes, but learning from them.
      Not willing to accept the truth that they have lost, the Ukrainians gulped down the Blue Pill and continue to fantasize about a do-ever. Zelensky even had the gall to demand of the Americans that they build him a new army, new airforce, etc. As if they could do in a couple of weeks what already took 8 years to build, and lose.

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      • Bob says:

        I made the comment before I read about the attempt to re-take Snake Island, the Sacred Spear Sepulchre. I thought maybe they purposely targeted the oil rigs all on their own. However, given the military debacle, I now think the Ukros would have stopped after not landing a single missile and realizing the futility but I’m sure the Americans threw a fissy and just lashed out at the oil rigs because they had to show some kind of “win”. Again, the Americans are functional adult retards with low emotional control/awareness. They have a high level of cognitive dissonance that prevents them accepting the possibility of failure, even when they do fail. At least, that’s my Cracker Jack analysis of it – and you can take that to the bank! (just not a real bank that actually handles anything of value, lol).

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        • yalensis says:

          Once in a while I scan American MSM. On a day (like today) when Russians were winning right and left and closing a major cauldron in Zolotoe-Gorsk, idiot American MSM still had headlines like “Ukrainians attack Black Sea targets and set to re-take Snake Island.”
          And then I start to suspect this little theory, namely: That when Ukrainians are losing badly, Americans plan some stupid operation FOR THE SOLE PURPOSE of the MSM headline, soundbite and/or talking point. All part of the virtual world. Another fake data point in the Matrix, all the better to lull people to sleep.

          This theory is confirmed when switch over to Ukrainian news, where svidomite imbeciles are chuckling at puns like “Smoking is bad for your help”, in re. the offshore rig platform fire. It’s all about lulling the idiots with a false sense of victory, just keep feeding them the blue pills… delay the inevitable truth bomb as long as possible…

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  8. Lex says:

    Distraction before the failed missile barrage on snake island? It’s reckless. Good thing it was a gas rig and not an oil rig. The fire is because it’s a gas rig. If it was oil it would be deep water horizon type of environmental catastrophe. And perhaps there were interceptions but you can’t usually get them all. The latest attack on snake island was a full barrage. The Russians might not talk about the details since they didn’t get them all and the one they missed was important.

    But for sure the US/UK is involved. Neither place has anything but terrible, dangerous ideas. And neither one yet understands the concept of consequences.

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    • yalensis says:

      Thanks for the explanation, Lex. In my post I think I called it an “oil rig”, because I didn’t understand the specifics, but you are right, it’s a gas rig, they were drilling for gas.
      As new information comes in, you’re right, it seems very plausible that this floating platform strike was a feint to cover up the new attack on Snake Island.

      “The one they missed was important..” I haven’t read anything about that, what have you heard, or what is your theory, if you don’t mind. I plan to do another post about Snake Island soon.

      Flippantly, I have read that Snake Island is rumored to be the place where Achilles is buried, and that treasure-hunters have been searching for his Lost Spear. Which allegedly confers immortality or other beneficial things upon the possessor. So, maybe that’s what they are fighting for, would make a great Hollywood adventure movie!

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  9. Beluga says:

    Something like this was bound to happen. Of course the Ukrainians are capable of doing this. Not have the cojones?!! They’re certifiably nuts. And the satellite taking photos is irrelevant — those gas rigs don’t up and move every couple of weeks, so their GPS coordinates haven’t been a secret for some considerable time.

    It’s peculiar to me that the RF knew where those miltary officers were meeting and Kalibr’d them, but somehow haven’t a clue where the launchers for the Harpoon missiles are in the Odessa area. Further, I was under the impression that there has been an advance RF force deployed on the outskirts of Odessa for some time — am I incorrect on this? Further still, what sane Russian company was operating the gas rigs just 70 km from Odessa in a “war”? With drifting Ukrainian mines on the loose at that. Did they rely on anti-missile and anti-aircraft cover as if it were always infallible?

    The Harpoons got the Moskva in all likelihood after all, is my takeaway. More words were spilled in complete speculation on that disaster than you can shake a stick at. All to no real conclusion. But those Harpoons were also supposed to have been fired from the Odessa area. And we were never shown the starboard side of the stricken ship — I searched.

    One is left to speculate as to the reasons for the apparent unevenness of Russian intelligence. No problem knocking off a building in a random village, but apparently no real clue where the UFA Harpoon base is located, despite the weapons being deployed near a city reasonably full of a pro-Russian populace. Scratches head … You got me there, Doc.

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