Prognosis For 2022: Cautiously Pessimistic – Part II

«Терпи казак — атаманом будешь»

[“Be patient, Cossack, you will become the Ataman” — Russian proverb]

Dear Readers:

Continuing with this piece by reporter Dmitry Bavyrin. As I mentioned, Bavyrin’s analysis of the “Ukrainian National Mentality” feeds into my pessimistic prognosis about the probability of war between Russia and the USA. We’ll get to that. Where we left off: Bavyrin was willing to stipulate that the Ukrainian Nationalists are not telling 100% porkies when they claim their guys (Bandera, Shukhevych and the others) were just playing the Nazis, same way they tried to played the Soviets; and that their ultimate goal was the establishment of an independent Ukraine. (As opposed to standard Soviet propaganda which dismissed these entities as one-dimensional Nazi collaborationists.)

After war is over, Chuck will say: “DAMNED UKRAINIANS! Look what you made us do!”

Bavyrin not only stipulates to this; it is his main thesis. We shall see how he develops this point, and just how dangerous are these Ukrainian delusions. Which, in turn, feeds into my thesis that said Ukrainian delusions of grandeur (“Let the Pans destroy each other, let whole world blow up, but we shall remain standing, and we shall rule in Hell!”) will most likely succeed in sparking the next war. Taking into account the utter imbecility of the American ruling class and the low IQ’s of their European lap-canines; not to mention their complete lack of understanding exactly whom they are dealing with here!

Bavyrin: While Shukhevych was developing his strategy of “be patient and wait it out” (in other words wait for Soviets and Germans to kill each other off, then the prize will fall into Ukraine’s lap), his political opponent at the time was Mikhail Stepanyak. Who was another important OUN leader; looking into the future, after the war he spent 14 years in Soviet prisons, repented for his sins, and died in 1967 a simple Soviet pensioner. But returning to his darker past, Stepanyak could see clearly, after the Battle of Stalingrad, how the war was going to turn out. He made an attempt to moderate the OUN’s political platform in a direction away from extreme Nationalism. His main talking point was that Russians as such were not the enemy, nor the Russian people; just the Russian government.

Of course, none of this can mitigate the fact that the OUN as an organization was built and nourished by the German government and Abwehr, from a time even before the war. In 1939 various OUN operatives added their contributions to the dismembership of Poland, for example the Ukrainian Legion known as Sushko. And from the very first days of the invasion of the USSR, the Ukrainian Nationalists were Johnny on the spot, swallowing up entire populated areas as quickly as they could reach them. It was around this time (we’re up to 1942) that the various military auxiliaries of the OUN formed the precursor to the UPA. (And hence the 80-year Anniversary of the founding of the UPA, which the current Ukrainian government plans to celebrate this year, pulling out all the stops.)

This year’s celebrations should surpass all others, including this one from 7 years ago.

At the time the UPA was created, there were already unresolvable differences of opinions between the Ukrainian Nationalists and their German sponsors. The Germans might have cynically “promised” the Svidomites their independent Ukraine. They never meant it, of course, just used it as bait, like offering candy. And when the OUN actually declared independence, with Stetsko as Head of State, the Germans quickly arrested both him and the Bandera brothers, along with a hundred or so other important Banderites; even shot a bunch of them. But while this was going on, Shukhevych and other OUN-ites like him, were happily serving in the German government and army. The Ukrainian Nationalists claim (and with some foundation, according to Bavyrin), that Shukhevych and the others were operating in a sort of “deep cover”, being clever intriguers who thought they were smart enough to pull the wool over German eyes. Just waiting for just the right moment to “betray” the Germans. Here Bavyrin repeats that old Russian joke (it never gets old) about “What do you call 3 Ukrainians?” Answer: “A partisan unit including one traitor.”

yalensis: The full joke goes something like this (there are many variants, but this is the one I like best):

“One Ukrainian: He is the master of his domain. Two Ukrainians: A partisan unit. Three Ukrainians: A partisan unit with an embedded traitor.”

Krauts: They’re so dumb. How dumb are they? They’re so dumb, that even Ukrainian Svidomites can pull the wool over their eyes!

Also, while I am inserting myself here and cracking jokes, I can’t help but compare the clever Shukhevych to Colonel Hogan from the old American TV series, Hogans Heroes. Hogan is a crafty fellow to be sure, but the Germans he is up against, like Colonel Klink and Sargeant Schultz are so very stupid, that it should almost be considered a crime to tease them so.

Bavyrin: In the end there was no cunning plan and no uprising. The Ukrainian Nationalists who were employed by the Reich, were contracted on an annual basis. On the instructions of Shukhevych, when they joined the UPA they simply neglected to renew their contract with the German government. Shukhevych’s strategy was “Keep your bayonets close but don’t anger the Germans.” As the plan evolved, they expected the Red Army to once again become the dominant force in the Ukraine. When that happened, they would go underground and start fighting against the Reds. In the meantime, they would do everything they could to avoid open conflict against the Germans. From a Ukrainian Nationalist point of view, this does actually seem like the sanest strategy.

Banderite massacre of Polish peasants

However, a plan of such sophistication [not meant sarcastically, both friends and foes grant Shukhevych that he was a very clever guy, an engineer by training] must have been difficult to promote among the rank and file, let alone carry out. Sure enough, as the Reds got stronger, the Ukrainian Nationalists started to fall apart and descend into chaos. Banditry and the thrill of looting attracted certain elements. Some units were off fighting against Reds, others were engaging in random battles against Germans; and meanwhile the brand-new UPA baptised itself in the blood of innocent Polish peasants. We’re talking Volhynia and Galicia, of course. This horrifically bloody ethnic cleansing and massacre of up to 50,000 members of the peaceful Polish community was meant as a warning to the Polish Krajowa Armia that the Ukrainians intended to keep this territory for themselves. Poles are not welcome here, as one can readily see from the images of Polish babies crucified on trees, and other monstrous crimes against humanity.

War crimes: Realistically, this is the true heritage of the OUN/UPA both then and now. Which current Ukrainian historiography either ignores or tries to explain away. Or resorts to gross falsifications, as is the case with the creation of a fictional personage named Stella Kranzbach. Who was supposed to be the poster-child to prove to civilized Canadians, that the Banderites were not Jew-haters.

[to be continued]

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8 Responses to Prognosis For 2022: Cautiously Pessimistic – Part II

  1. peter moritz says:

    “And from the very first days of the invasion of the USSR, the Ukrainian Nationalists were Johnny on the spot, swallowing up entire populated areas as quickly as they could reach them”

    That is putting it mildly.
    https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/clash-of-victimhood-1943-volhynian-massacre-in-polish-and-ukrainian-culture/

    “Historians estimate around 60,000 victims among Volhynia’s Polish civilians, the majority of them – peasants. [5] The UPA’s “anti-Polish operation” was probably influenced by the earlier “anti-Jewish operation” carried out by the Nazis and sometimes even resembled it. One of the UPA documents clearly stated: “The resistance of the Polish self-defense diminished to an extent that the Ukrainian operations recall German actions against the Jews”

    However, this article clearly diminishes the homegrown fascist ideology that underpins both organizations.
    And here is an analysis of the ideological background of the OUN and UPA:

    https://carlbeckpapers.pitt.edu/ojs/index.php/cbp/article/view/164/160

    ” The Decalogue of the OUN explicitly called upon its members not to hesitate to enslave foreigners
    and “treat enemies of Your Nation with hatred and ruthlessness.”14 In 1936 Stepan Bandera
    indicated the magnitude of the crimes the OUN was prepared to consider in order to achieve
    this goal. “The OUN values the life of its members, values it highly; but—our idea in our
    understanding is so grand, that when we talk about its realization, not single individuals, nor
    hundreds, but millions of victims have to be sacrificed in order to realize it.”
    “Family life must be of Ukrainian character. It’s content: the parents (father-mother) and children have to be Ukrainians. Mixed marriages (Ukrainian-Polish, Ukrainian-Muscovite, Ukrainian-Magyar, Ukrainian-Jewish) will be banned, forming such unions will be made impossible. We regard their very existence and the making of such unions a crime of national treason”

    “In the 1930s the OUN press contained enthusiastic references to the Hajdamaki uprising in
    which many Poles, Uniates, and Jews were slaughtered.
    When this new, great day [of national revolution] arrives, we will have no
    mercy. There will be no cease-fire, the Pereiaslavl or Hadiach peace treaties
    will not be repeated. A new Zalizniak, a new Gonta will come. There will be
    no mercy, neither for the big, nor the small, and the bard will sing: ‘And father
    slaughtered son.’
    The 1935 program for the military education of OUN combatants stressed that “a
    fighter should not hesitate to kill his father, brother, or best friend if he gets such an order.”

    Anybody reading this paper and still denies or diminishes the obvious fascist and racist ideology of the Ukrainian Nationalist parties OUN and UAP is just lying to further the criminal agenda of today’s Ukrainian nationalists.

    Like

    • yalensis says:

      Thanks for clip, Julius, great battle scene! Not sure which team I should be rooting for… Ukrainians? Poles? I will give it to the Poles that those feathery wing-things on their backs are pretty cool.

      Liked by 1 person

      • Husar says:

        Not really wings. Back supports attached to the saddle. Looked like wings and made terrifying noise in a charge.

        Like

        • yalensis says:

          That’s awesome! I always thought they were attached to the person’s uniform, but saddle fit makes a lot more sense. Even cavalrymen sometimes have to engage in hand-to-hand combat, so I imagine wearing wings on your back would just get in the way, like if you had to do a big roundhouse flip, or something…
          🙂

          Like

  2. Stephen T Johnson says:

    I think there’s no question that the various Ukrainian nationalist forces – both in Ukraine proper and the diaspora will be militating as hard as they possibly can for the persecution of those they conceive as their enemies – 2022 will, I suspect be a particularly nasty year for those ethnic russians (and jews, poles, hungarians, etc) who have the misfortune to live in Western Ukraine. It’s a safe bet that the Kiev regime will have neither the will nor the ability to stop any of this going down. None of this, however, nasty as it likely will be rises to the level of war, not even close. Outside of Ukraine, I doubt we’ll see more than noise.
    I do think it highly likely we’ll see some significant expansion of provocations along or near the line of contact in the Donbass, and likely increased Russian aid (open or sub rosa) to the Novorossiyans to match or overmatch the US/NATO arms flow to Ukraine. I don’t know if you saw Gilbert Doctorow’s piece on https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2021/12/31/russian-elites-talk-will-the-negotiations-in-geneva-on-january-10-bring-about-a-roll-back-of-nato/, it’s a partial transcript of the Russian TV show Evening with Solovyov https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=–zY5H9lYcI – unfortunately, my Russian is completely inadequate to that, so I’ll stick with Doctorow’s transcript. To me the most important takeaway is this quote:
    Sidorov: We don’t have to use the word “war.” We will take a political action with limited use of armed force.
    To me, that implies that Russia will likely attack Ukraine at some point in the near future (after the Olympics, I’ll bet), but it’ll be a standoff attack on whatever forces / bases / military infrastructure that Moscow deems threatening or potentially threatening. Dollars to donuts it won’t include any super-whizzo technology. I’ll not be at all surprised if we also see RF recognition of Novorossiya (And, who knows, maybe Transdnistria too) as a part of the whole incremental pressure scheme. I don’t think we’ll see a “real” war in the sense of armies moving, borders shifting and the like.
    My two cents worth…I could be wrong, since my crystal ball is broken.
    Cheers,

    Like

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