Today finishing this piece from VZGLIAD, by military/intelligence reporter Evgeny Krutikov. Where we left off yesterday, Krutikov was analyzing the actions and motivations of the Kurdish militias. Who seem to be, at this point, the only real ground forces that the Americans possess in this arena. As one recalls, the Americans have established an illegal base at al-Tanf, Syria, which is on the crucial border triangle where Syria, Iraq and Jordan meet. Illegal, because nobody invited the Americans into Syrian territory, nor do they have a mandate from the UN. They just went in anyway. Whatever the Americans think of Syrian President Assad, he is the legitimately elected president of a sovereign nation. In that capacity, his government invited into the conflict both the Russian armed forces and Hezbollah. Who are thereby operating legally in this war, unlike the Americans. When they are not busy bombing Syrian army convoys, the Americans, along with their NATO and Saudi-paid allies squatting in al-Tanf claim to be training still another “anti-ISIS” (actually anti-Syrian government) “rebel” group, this one with the colorful name Maghawir al-Thawra (Revolutionary Commando Army).
Which rebels appear to consist of whatever riffraff of the jihadist groups who were pushed out of Aleppo and Palmyra by the Syrian-Russian offensives. Starting with just 120 riffraffs, American claim they are beefing them up and expect to expand to up to 30,000 troops, based on pledges of manpower from Jordan and the Gulf States. Which everybody knows is a joke. But anyhow, this sorry lot, along with the American-paid Kurds approaching Raqqa, is pretty much the entire kit and arsenal of the American-led “coalition” against the so-called “Shia crescent” of Syria-Iran. As the two sides now array themselves for the final battle, this will go down, among other things, as President Trumps’s “folly in the desert” of a legacy.
The Al-Tanf airbased is located in the Syrian Province called As-Suwayda. One of 14 administrative provinces in the nation. According to wiki, most of the people in this area are (religious) Druze, with a significant Greek Orthodox minority. In Hellenistic-Roman times the capital city of this province was known as Dionysias, named after the Greek god of wine, because this is a major wine-producing area since ancient times. An interesting footnote underscoring the ethnic diversity of the future Syrian Republic. However much the Saudis and the Americans fuss and strive, they are not able to turn these diverse and interesting peoples into the crude Headchoppers of their dreams.
Returning to Krutikov:
The peace talks in Astana (Kazakhstan) mentioned nothing about the as-Suwayda province. Nothing has been said about its supposed “partition” or conversion into a “Safety Zone” under the auspices of President Trump. Theoretically, once the Syrian pro-government forces unite with their Shiite allies in Ar-Rutbah (Iraq) and seal off the (Iraqi) border, then the Americans will find themselves cut off from their base in the south of Syria. At which point the Jordanians will discover that they have been wasting their time, all these years, funding and training anti-Syrian armed groups.
The Americans and their Israeli overlords allies can’t stand the thought that pro-Iranian Shiite groups are going to penetrate into this area. There is a reason why the American bombers relentlessly go after the Shiite units. And this, in turn, gives Iran a great propaganda angle, to portray the Pentagon’s actions as anti-Shiite, basically directed against the Shiite religion. Hence, with every bomb that falls on the heads of the Hashd al-Shaabi Popular Mobilization Forces, sympathy for the Persians only grows.
Despite the bad optics created by all of this on the regional scene, the Trump administration, given the Israeli lobby, simply can’t help itself from attacking Shiites. But despite their best attempts, it is a foregone conclusion that the Syrian army will eventually re-establish control over the As-Suwayda province and the borders to its own country. This outcome is highly unpleasant to the Americans, who might attempt to avert it through diplomatic negotiations; like, demanding a partition of this zone.
Krutikov finishes by predicting that the pro-American militias will not stand firm against the 9th Armoured Division of the Syrian Army. Soon enough they will be haggling for bus tickets back to Idlib.